National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KKEY 191906
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is highlighting cumulus lines
streaming off several of the Florida Keys islands. Earlier today,
mentioned the chance for possible cloud line formation. However,
mean-steering flow was too east southeasterly to allow the clouds
to align along the islands. Skies are generally partly cloudy
across the Keys, with temperatures reaching the advertised mid
80s.

A routine forecast through early next week on tap. Surface high
pressure in the west-central Atlantic along with a stubborn mid-
level ridge stationed in the western Gulf of Mexico will result
in continued nil rain chances and near average temperatures.
Things get a tad more complicated as we approach Tuesday night
through Wednesday, stemming from a split in the evolution of this
mid- level ridge. Some solutions suggest a breakdown of this
ridge, allowing for a potential shortwave trough to pivot through
the Gulf of Mexico. Other solutions suggest the ridge will remain
dominant over the Gulf, resulting in a continued benign weather
pattern. Given run-to-run consistency in this split, did elect to
nudge PoPs up for this timeframe, but will not make drastic
changes at this time. This will continued to be monitored over
the next several forecast cycles, and adjustments will be made as
necessary. It should be of note that this is the time of year
where a "sneak attack" from an mesoscale convective system (MCS)
can try to propagate through our neck of the woods.

Ironically, despite being later in the forecast period, confidence
increases in the ridge re-fortifying over the Gulf. Near-nil rain
chances seem to be a good bet for this period, although will
nudge towards climatological dimes for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure
over the western Atlantic will maintain gentle to occasionally
moderate east to southeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters
through the weekend. Gentle southerly breezes on Monday will
become northerly Monday night as a weak front dissipates over
South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
VFR conditions with east to southeast winds near 10 knots continue
through the TAF period at both island terminals. Skies onsite remain
clear, but observations may reflect FEW to SCT clouds between 2k and
3k feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  75  84  76 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  84  75  85  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....NB

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest