Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
501 FXUS62 KKEY 271434 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 After quite a long dry stretch, it appears today has broken that stretch in some areas at least. KBYX radar shows isolated showers moving from east to west in the easterly flow this morning. At the office, a trace has been observed so far, though, some other locations further up the Keys, in particular, the Middle and Upper Keys, have picked up a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall as estimated by MRMS. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Sprawling high pressure remains in place across the western North Atlantic this morning. As a result, marine platforms around the Keys are observing east winds of 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to 28 knots. Island Chain communities were observing east winds near 20 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph. The 12z RAOB from this morning shows decent moisture from the surface up to approximately 845 mb. The wind profile shows slight veering with wind speeds pretty consistent near 25 knots. Due to the slight veering and some speed convergence, the shower coverage across the Keys was a bit more than anticipated. Therefore, we went ahead and increased the PoP chances from 10 to 20 percent to account for slightly more coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered over New England will dive southward off the Atlantic Coast through the weekend. Easterly breezes will freshen further in the short term, with strong breezes expected through at least Sunday. As the high weakens somewhat south of Bermuda early next week, breezes will slacken, although occasionally fresh breezes will continue through the first half of the week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Despite drive-by VCSH through the afternoon hours, VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Near-surface winds will remain sustained from the east at near 15 knots, with occasional gusts 20 to 25 knots, especially in the vicinity of the passing showers. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Keys Weather History, in 2003, a severe thunderstorm produced a 53 mph gust and 1/2" to 1&3/4" hail over the entire island of Key West for about 10 minutes. This was the largest hail ever recorded in Key West, and tied the largest ever in Monroe County. And in 1980, hail smaller than 3/4" fell in Key West and an F2 tornado hit Cudjoe Key and/or Ramrod Key, resulting In 10 injuries and $250k in damage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 75 84 75 / 20 10 10 20 Marathon 84 75 83 75 / 20 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest