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000
FXUS64 KLCH 171546
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1046 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

No changes to the forecast at this time. Looking at a muggy day
with mostly cloudy skies. Cap should hold that no significant
shower activity is expected.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Locally, high pressure ridging will shift eastward across the
Florida Peninsula while low pressure troughing developing over the
SW Plains tightens the gradient over the area allowing winds to
increase through this evening. Last night’s sounding shows a fairly
moist low level column with saturation at 2000-3500 ft where clouds
have trended broken to overcast. With continued southerly moisture
advection, warm, cloudy, and breezy conditions are forecast
throughout the day. Also to note with the warm southerly regime are
the signals and observations of  patchy fog development. Areas with
higher winds may mix out to very low cloud bases, otherwise, periods
of fog are likely through sunrise. After reaching into the mid 80’s
with the help of a few breaks in the clouds, fog potential is once
again noted for Wednesday night including coastal marine locations.

A developing shortwave trough over Baja / SW CONUS gains positive
tilt early Thursday while riding along the subtropical Jet over the
N’rn Sierra Madres. This feature will begin to deepen surface
pressure over TX and southern Plains to a front boundary- also
perturbed by large subsidence occurring over the NW CONUS. The
area will continue to stay mainly dry at the surface despite warm
and humid conditions thanks to low level inversion around 850mb
keeping convection capped. That low level subsidence weakens by
Friday, however, a lack of forcing will minimize POPS over the
area, particularly over counties/parishes near and south of I-10.
Northern tier portions of the CWA stand a chance of seeing some
isolated showers or thunderstorm during the afternoon as the
aforementioned frontal boundary to the north shifts over the
ARKLATEX region. This frontal boundary in conjunction with the
approaching shortwave and associated surface troughing over Mexico
/ S’rn Texas will be the focus that trends into the long range
for better organized precipitation through the weekend. In the
meanwhile, confidence remains high in temperatures trending into
the mid 80s with a mostly cloudy to overcast conditions.

Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A front will continue to shift south through the area on Saturday.
Temperatures north of the boundary will be cooler, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s, while further south (along and south
of I-10), high temps are again expected to reach at least the lower
80s. Moisture will continue to increase over the area with PWATs
progged to peak around 1.8 inches Saturday night into early Sunday
as a southern stream shortwave approaches the area.
This will bring increasing chances for showers across the region,
primarily from late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast soundings show
weak shear and limited instability so severe weather does not appear
likely, and any thunder should remain generally isolated to widely
scattered. Rain amounts are also expected to be generally less than
an inch, but localized totals exceeding an inch will be possible.

Surface high pressure building south will push the frontal boundary
further offshore on Sunday, with cooler temperatures moving into the
region. Highs on Sunday could struggle to reach 70 degrees for areas
north of I-10. As the shortwave aloft slides east of the lower MS
Valley by late in the day, drier air spreading into the region will
bring an end to the showers from west to east Sunday afternoon. By
Sunday night, some of the chilliest temperatures of the period are
expected with lows falling to around 50 degrees north with lower to
middle 50s south.

Despite the chilly start on Monday, conditions are expected to be
rather seasonable for the start of the workweek as high pressure
moves across the area. Dry weather should prevail through at least
Tuesday with a warming trend developing by midweek as the high moves
east of the area.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR bordering to VFR conditions are observed across the area with
FEW / BKN ceilings lowering through the sunrise hours. Fog will be
present periodically over the area, but density is expected to be
limited with steady SSE winds, generally above 5kts. Visibilities
generally expected above 5SM with brief period during dawn/sunrise
hedging MVFR and or very briefly IFR where winds ease. Winds will
strengthen again gusting toward 15-20kts. Remainder of the day BKN
to FEW ceilings under 5kft will trend conditions MVFR before ceiling
lift toward VFR by the early evening. Fog potential will be present
overnight again into Thursday morning, however, these signals in
numerical guidance along with current observations of similar
present environment suggest visibilities won`t be severely limited
under MVFR for most areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Winds will remain out of the SSE gusting 15-20kts given the
pressure gradient ahead of a storm system over the Plains lifting
off toward the Great Lakes. A light onshore flow will prevail
into the weekend. Precipitation chances are negligible until the
weekend. Fog potential through the morning hours expected to be
patchy. A similar scenario is expected overnight into Thursday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  67  87  65 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  82  70  83  70 /  10  10   0   0
LFT  84  72  86  71 /  10  10   0   0
BPT  83  70  85  69 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30