375
FXUS64 KLZK 011132 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Recent IR sat imgry depicted a broad cirrus shield moving acrs N/Wrn
AR fm ongoing decaying convection in N/Ern OK and N/Wrn AR. Some
precip activity wl lkly linger acrs N/Wrn AR thru the remaining
overnight hours, w/ a downward trend in convective intensity and
coverage expected towards 12Z this mrng.

Thru the day today, developing sfc cyclonic flow acrs the OK/TX
panhandle and CO frnt range wl yield broad Srly flow over the Srn
Cntrl US. An asctd stationary frnt, extending E-N/Ewrd over Ern OK
and the Ozark Plateau initially, wl begin to advance Nwrd as a
wrmfrnt this aftn. Strong WAA wl lkly yield some of the warmest
temps yet this Spring, w/ fcst readings in the mid to upper 80s acrs
much of the state. PoPs today wl lkly remain confined to far Wrn and
N/Wrn AR, w/ covg and magnitude dcrsg by the later mrng to early
aftn hrs.

Thurs, higher Chc PoPs are set to resume acrs the FA as a shortwave
perturbation maneuvers thru broader longwave troughing H500 flow
acrs the Cont Divide. Scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms
wl be lkly acrs the Wrn half of the state Thurs mrng to aftn, w/
precip covg moving Ewrd by the later evng to overnight hours.

Some areas of locally heavy rainfall may be seen, particularly fm
S/Wrn to Srn Cntrl AR, and some local flooding issues may arise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

With an active subtropical jet, southerly flow and a warm/moist
airmass will have a hold of the area at the end of the week with
continued off and on rain chances. A cold front will attempt to drop
into the state by the weekend and provide an axis for additional
shower and thunderstorm development. Rain will not be continuous
with heaviest amounts looking to remain north of the forecast area.
Any severe weather chances will depend on the recovery period of
instability in between rounds. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the 80s and lows generally in the 60s through the weekend
increasing to the lower 90s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Broad cirrus shield was moving acrs Wrn portions of the FA from
ongoing precip in Ern and N/Ern OK. Expect VFR condns to prevail
thru the PD, w/ some lingering precip potentially moving acrs Nrn
terminals thru this mrng. Srly flow should prevail thru the day.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  64  82  65 /   0   0  50  80
Camden AR         88  64  77  65 /   0  10  80  70
Harrison AR       82  62  78  60 /  20   0  60  70
Hot Springs AR    87  64  77  64 /  10  10  80  80
Little Rock   AR  88  65  81  67 /   0   0  70  80
Monticello AR     88  67  81  67 /   0   0  60  70
Mount Ida AR      86  64  76  63 /  10  10  90  80
Mountain Home AR  83  62  81  61 /  10   0  50  70
Newport AR        86  64  84  66 /   0   0  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     87  64  81  66 /   0   0  60  80
Russellville AR   87  64  78  64 /  10  10  70  70
Searcy AR         86  62  81  64 /   0   0  50  70
Stuttgart AR      86  66  82  67 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...72