Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201928
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
228 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Latest views of regional radar data indicate a continuous area of
rainfall with some thunderstorms, extending from western north Texas
to western Mississippi. Precipitation is supported by southerly to
southwesterly upglide flow in the 808 to 700 hpa layer.
The upper flow pattern over the U.S. will undergo some amplification
during this period. A sharpening upper trough will approach the mid
south from the central plains tonight. This feature will promote
additional precipitation this evening, before all precipitation ends
by mid morning Sunday.
The trough will support the transport of a cooler and drier air mass
to the mid south on Sunday. Some areas of frost are expected to
form across northern sections of the state Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Guidance is not showing any major differences this afternoon in the
extended period and as such, no value added changes will be forth
coming. Biggest difference remains the timing of a cold front coming
in late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Model differences remain between
the GFS and EURO and a blend of forecast solutions seems prudent.
Period initiates with broad northwest flow in place and surface high
pressure located over the southeast CONUS. Monday night is still
looking a little on the chilly side but temperatures warm up quickly
on Tuesday, reaching the 70s across the forecast area. Meanwhile,
low pressure moving along the northern tier of the nation will drag
a cold front to the Arkansas/Missouri border by the end of the day.
Biggest question this period remains where this cold front ends up
with guidance continuing to offer different solutions. GFS solution
brings the front into southern Arkansas before stalling it out with
the ECMWF slower and not quite as far south as its GFS counterpart.
However, models do remain consistent with an upper impulse coming in
for Wednesday but only low end precip chances are warranted at this
time.
Aforementioned boundary does lift to the north as a warm front later
in the week as upper level low pressure moves from the four corners
and into the central plains on Friday, before moving moving well to
the northeast of the FA by the end of the period. With the front
moving to the north and increasing moisture and lift, precipitation
chances will continue. Temperatures are expected to be well into the
80s by the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
VFR and dry conditions are expected across N AR terminals through
the period. Elsewhere, MVFR and lower cigs/vsby will persist or
develop through the period. Rain with occasional TS activity will
be common across at least the southern half of the state through
early Sunday morning. Winds will largely be out of the N/NE
through the period with the highest gusts expected this morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 44 64 40 69 / 20 0 0 0
Camden AR 46 65 40 70 / 90 10 0 0
Harrison AR 39 61 37 69 / 10 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 46 65 40 69 / 70 10 0 0
Little Rock AR 49 66 43 71 / 50 10 0 0
Monticello AR 49 65 42 70 / 90 10 0 0
Mount Ida AR 44 65 38 70 / 60 10 0 0
Mountain Home AR 40 63 36 70 / 10 0 0 0
Newport AR 46 64 40 68 / 20 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 49 64 41 69 / 80 10 0 0
Russellville AR 44 66 40 71 / 30 0 0 0
Searcy AR 45 64 39 69 / 30 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 49 63 42 67 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...55