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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A cold front is ahead of schedule and currently moving through the
Permian Basin putting an abrupt halt to daytime heating. There is a
marked difference in temperatures where ahead of the front readings
are in the 90s while behind the front they range from the 80s all
the way down to the upper 60s. Gusty north to northeast winds will
continue overnight dropping temperatures down into the 40s and 50s.
Moisture that was in place ahead of the front has not been pushed
out of the area, but lifted aloft over the colder airmass behind the
front. This will become evident later tonight when 850mb winds veer
around from the south and provide enough lift to create extensive
low clouds. The low clouds will prevent much diurnal variation in
temperatures Friday suggesting MAV guidance is too optimistic. By
contrast the MET is showing much cooler temperatures, which may
occur, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in how cool
the airmass is so stayed close to the NBM guidance which is about an
even split between the GFS and NAM. Mid-level flow begins backing
from a more southwesterly direction during the day on Friday further
enhancing lift enough that scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms develop in the Big Bend Friday afternoon and spread
north overnight encompassing the entire CWA by sunrise Saturday
morning. The rainfall during this time period will be light and
accumulations will generally be below a tenth of an inch until
rainfall increases in the long term.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

By 12z Saturday morning, the cold front will have surged to at least
the higher terrain in our far southern/western zones. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough approaches from the west on Saturday with plenty of
available moisture in place behind the cold front. The clear
indication of this is rainfall chances, however there remains a
large discrepancy in the global models/ensembles and the higher
resolution (convective allowing) models that we are just edging into
the range of as it regards to expected rainfall coverage/location.
The global models are much more bullish with rainfall coverage and
amounts for the Permian Basin but the more trusted high resolution
models for this scenario are much more skeptical with coverage.
Initially, isentropic ascent Friday into Saturday could instill a
more stratiform regime with light rainfall over a larger area,
however, as the upper trough approaches, more elevated instability
develops and storm mode could transition to feature more elevated
instability. The thinking is that the best chances for rain Saturday
afternoon will come for the east-central Permian Basin although
there still remains uncertainty in coverage/rain amounts. Either
way, the progressive nature of the shortwave brings in drier air and
subsidence throughout the day on Sunday. High temperatures on
Saturday will be largely dictated by the clouds and precipitation,
with many spots in the Permian Basin seeing little to no warming
with highs only topping out in the 50s and low 60s with 70s/80s
along/south of highway 90. Some moderation comes on Sunday but cool
conditions linger until Monday when less cloud cover allows warming
back into the 70s and 80s.

For the early to middle part of next week, upper level flow stays
relatively light with weak ridging in place. Lee troughing at the
surface brings the return of southerly flow as early as Monday,
keeping dewpoints of 40-50+ degrees in place. This could bring about
some diurnally-driven convection across the Big Bend on Monday with
perhaps some more disturbed weather arriving with the next trough
Wednesday/Thursday. Temperatures return above normal by Tuesday.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Latest surface obs indicate the front has made it through all
terminals, and northeasterly flow will continue next 24 hours. All
models indicate a stratus deck developing late tonight E-W, w/NBM
suggesting MVFR cigs all terminals for at least a few hours
Friday. Cigs should scatter out to VFR sometime during the
afternoon all terminals, but may redevelop near the end of the
forecast period KMAF/KINK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               83  49  66  50 /   0   0  10  70
Carlsbad                 87  52  71  54 /   0   0   0  30
Dryden                   97  64  78  63 /   0  10  30  50
Fort Stockton            95  57  73  59 /   0   0  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           83  52  68  54 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    78  47  65  48 /   0   0  10  50
Marfa                    87  48  80  51 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     85  51  65  52 /   0   0  10  60
Odessa                   84  53  66  54 /   0   0  10  60
Wink                     88  54  71  55 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44