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000
FXUS62 KMHX 200946
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
546 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks south across the region and stalls just
offshore on Saturday. An area of low pressure will lift NE along
the front Sunday bringing rain across the region. High pressure
briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with
limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure
builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 445 AM Saturday...Low stratus is over much of the area,
and fog continues building through much of the CWA. SPS is
currently out until 5:15AM, and will likely need to be extended
or upgraded to a DFA shortly. Thunderstorms approaching Duplin
County have quickly weakened, bringing scattered light to
moderate showers. Fog is expected to become more dense over the
next 2-3 hours, lifting from increased mixing after sunrise,
albeit a bit delayed with the low cloud cover persisting. Temps
are in the low 60s for inland ENC, and upper 60s for beaches,
except for NOBX which has temps in the mid 50s from the
northerly flow.

cold front sweeps southwards across ENC Sat afternoon shifting
the winds behind this front to a NE`rly direction. Scattered showers
moving through southern portions of the CWA will be quickly
pushing out to sea Sat morning. Coastal Plain should remain dry
in the afternoon, while a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
pop up along the OBX and Crystal Coast as the front makes its
way through. Temps get into the mid to upper 70s inland and
into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 530 AM Saturday...Lows in the mid to upper 50s CWA wide,
with calm winds and increasing sky cover ahead of a shortwave.
CAM guidance showing the greatest potential for isolated
showers along and east of hwy 17 ahead of the shortwave.
Because of the low coverage potential, stuck with Schc for much
of the region, becoming Chc for extreme SE portions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern
with several frontal passages, including an area of low pressure
lifting off the coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the
flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday
and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and lift
along the coast through Sunday night and push the cold front
farther offshore on Monday. Widespread rain to develop across
the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts
expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts
occuring along the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep
cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to
mid 60s. The upper trough will push across the region Monday but
guidance continues to trend southward and weaker with dry
conditions prevailing. Below normal temps continue on Monday
with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with
additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across
the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture
appears to be limited with this system and will keep PoPs below
mentionable. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday
and Friday with dry conditions prevailing. A warming trend will
develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s,
and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday. Temps cool back to the
low to mid 70s Thursday with a few degrees of warming on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...LIFR ceilings dominate, and LIFR fog
has started building in for southern terminals, slowly expanding
northward. Ceilings then begin to improve to MVFR late Sat
morning as the area becomes wedged between the front that moves
through tonight and a second front coming in from the north late
Sat. Fog lifts shortly after 12Z, but ceilings don`t become
firmly VFR until we get into the evening/night hours Saturday.
Light winds persist across the region through the period.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along
hwy 17 and the Crystal Coast in the afternoon Saturday along a
sea breeze.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Low pressure passes along the offshore
front Sunday through Sunday night bringing widespread rain and
sub-VFR conditions across rtes. Improving conditions will ensue
on Monday with pred VFR through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday night/...
As of 538 AM Saturday...Foggy conditions for the Neuse/Pamlico
Rivers and Coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City have
resulted in a Marine DFA this morning. Outside of the fog, quiet
marine conditions, with seas 3-5ft and winds light out of the
south, backing as you go north with a sfc low approaching. After
fog deteriorates this morning, winds shift to becoming northerly
and strengthen behind a cold front moving south this
afternoon. Current expectation is for gusts to remain below 25
kts, so a SCA will not be needed for this surge in the
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the
afternoon should remain away from coastal waters, cutting
through the rivers and sounds. Saturday night winds are
northeasterly10-15kts, and seas are predominantly 2-4 ft, with
some 5 footers possible over the gulf stream.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...A frontal boundary will be stalled
offshore Sunday with a deepening area of low pressure lifting
along the front Sunday into Sunday night. NE winds around 15-20
kt Sunday morning will increase up to 25 kt south of Oregon
Inlet including the Pamlico Sound in the afternoon through
Sunday night. Seas will build to 4-8 ft across the waters south
of Oregon Inlet in response, highest across the outer central
waters. Seas up to 6 ft and gusts up to 25 kt will linger in
this area Monday night. NE winds around 15 kt or less Tuesday
shifts to SW 10 kt or less Tuesday night, then increases to
10-15 kt Wednesday in advance of another cold front. Seas around
3-5 ft persist Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ