Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250201
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1001 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows isolated light showers over the
local Atlantic waters moving towards the eastern coast of Florida
before dissipating near the Treasure Coast. Dry conditions are
observed over land with GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics showing
decreasing cloud cover over east central Florida, in addition to
scattered marine stratocu offshore. Meanwhile, an expansive 1032mb
high continues to build over the Eastern CONUS. North-northeast
winds have weakened this evening but still remain breezy with
gusts to 25-30mph, mainly along the coast. Winds are expected to
veer east and slacken into early Monday morning at 8-15mph with
gusts to 20-25mph, before increasing into the mid-morning hours.
Current temperatures are in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Low
temperatures are on track to reach the mid 50s to low 60s Monday
morning with the exception of coastal Brevard county and the
Treasure Coast where the mid to upper 60s are forecast under
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Currently-Tonight... Poor to hazardous boating conditions are
expected through tonight with a Small Craft Advisory in effect.
Northeast winds around 18 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots will
build seas up to 6 to 8 feet nearshore and 9 to 11 feet in the
Gulf Stream.

Monday (previous discussion)... Easterly winds will decrease to
around 15kts by Monday afternoon. However, seas will be slow to
subside, with heights of 7-11ft today only becoming 7-9ft tomorrow
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories persist across all of the local
Atlantic zones.

Showers over the waters this afternoon are forecast to diminish from
north to south into late afternoon/early evening. Then, dry
conditions prevail through the period.

Tuesday-Friday...Hazardous boating conditions will continue across
all legs of the local Atlantic waters through at least Wednesday
morning, with continuing poor to hazardous conditions across the
Gulf Stream waters through Friday. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots on
Tuesday and Wednesday will veer to out of the north-northwest behind
the passage of a cold front on Thursday, with wind speeds increasing
to 15 to 25 knots behind it. Seas will remain 6 to 9 feet Tuesday
and Wednesday, subsiding to 4 to 7 feet Thursday, and increasing
once again to 5 to 8 feet on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is
currently in effect through at least Tuesday night, though would not
be surprised if it is extended through the remainder of the week.

Outside of the hazardous boating conditions, shower and storms
chances are also forecast to increase across the local Atlantic
waters out ahead of a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Any
storms that develop may be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-
water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Locally
higher seas near any storms will also be possible.
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the period with high pressure
expected to build over the eastern CONUS. Breezy northeast winds
at 14-18kts with gusts to 20-25kts will veer east and slacken
overnight at around 10-12kts, before increasing Monday with gusts
to 24kts into the afternoon under mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Monday... While the pressure gradient will ease through Monday,
it will remain tight enough to produce gusty conditions through
the afternoon. Wind speeds up to around 15mph, with gusts 20-25mph
are forecast. Lower cloud cover Monday afternoon will help
daytime highs rise in to the mid-70s along the coast and upper 70s
to near 80 inland.

Tuesday-Thursday...Mid-level ridging will persist across the Florida
peninsula into Tuesday, with conditions forecast to remain mostly
dry. Onshore winds will gradually veer to out of the southeast at 10
to 15 mph, with slight backing to out of the east-southeast possible
as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland Tuesday
afternoon. On Wednesday, the mid-level ridge is forecast to shift
eastward out over the western Atlantic Ocean, with the surface high
weakening in response. The southeasterly flow will persist locally,
leading to gradually increasing moisture across the peninsula. A
broad mid-level trough across the central US will then begin to
shift eastward on Wednesday, with the associated surface cold front
advancing eastward across the southeastern US. This will lead to
increasing rain chances late Wednesday through Thursday as the front
moves across the peninsula, with PoPs generally 20 to 50 percent.
Instability continues to remain unfavorable, with modeled SBCAPE
remaining below 500 J/kg. However, isolated storms cannot be ruled
out with the passage of this cold front, though confidence remains
low at this time. Any storms that are able to develop will be
capable of producing frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours. By late Thursday afternoon, the
front is forecast to move south of east central Florida, with
conditions drying out and skies gradually clearing.

Temperatures will be warm out ahead of the cold front Tuesday and
Wednesday, with afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s. Increased
cloud coverage combined with the location of the cold front on
Thursday will lead to temperatures only reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s
Tuesday and Wednesday nights, cooling into the low to mid 50s on
Thursday night.

Friday-Sunday...Behind the frontal passage on Thursday, an area of
surface high pressure will quickly build across the southeastern US,
drifting southeastward towards the Florida peninsula. Winds become
northerly behind the front, with drier air filtering in across east
central Florida. This will be felt, as minimum RH values are
forecast to fall into the 30 to 40 percent range next weekend. As a
result, dry conditions are forecast into the weekend, with plenty of
sunshine expected locally. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
behind the front on Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the low
to mid 70s across east central Florida. Temperatures will then begin
to gradually warm next weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
on Saturday and upper 70s t mid 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will
generally be in the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday night and in the low
50s to low 60s Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  59  74  60 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  73  60  78  61 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  73  65  76  63 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  75  64  77  62 /  20  10   0   0
LEE  72  58  78  61 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  72  59  77  60 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  73  60  78  62 /  20  10   0   0
FPR  76  63  77  60 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM....Schaper
AVIATION...Fehling


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