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000
FXUS62 KMLB 091349
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
949 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure over the western
Atlantic with its axis settled to our north. Southeast winds
prevail, increasing near 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Mostly dry
with no mentionable precip this afternoon. However, cloud cover is
forecast to steadily build into late afternoon and the evening. High
temperatures increase into the U70/L80s along the coast, climbing
into the L/M80s across interior sites. The current forecast remains
on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 949 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Southeast winds increase to around 15 kts this afternoon, gusting
between 20-25 kts. Gusts diminish after sunset as sustained winds
fall to 6-11 kts. Cloud cover builds into the evening with near
MVFR CIGs forecast along the Treasure Coast tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Today - Tonight... Water vapor imagery reveals a strong disturbance
in the Desert Southwest and a branch of the subtropical jet
emanating from the S Plains toward the Ohio Valley this morning. In
response, numerous showers and storms continue along the Red River
Valley of the South. High clouds continue to stream across the Gulf
Of Mexico and over Florida. Evening RAOB analysis (09/00Z) placed a
mid-level ridge axis very close to the Florida Peninsula, with
heights approaching 588 dam from Tampa to Cape Canaveral. At the
surface, Florida resides on the western periphery of healthy 1024 mb
high pressure in the W Atlantic. A rather tight pressure gradient
extends all the way to low pressure over W Texas. For today, east-
southeast winds will pick up once again, gusting from 15-25 mph with
the strongest gusts along the coast. Partly cloudy skies are
expected with high temperatures near 80F along the coast, rising to
the mid 80s west of Orlando to Okeechobee. Mild conditions continue
tonight with lows in the mid/upper 60s (except near 70F on the
barrier islands). Despite large-scale subsidence, HREF members
(09/00Z) indicate a thin stream of increased moisture, at the top of
the PBL, will arrive from the Bahamas after sunset. This could
generate sprinkles or a few showers later tonight mainly south of
Melbourne. Reflected this with a 20% rain chance. Many places will
remain dry.

Wednesday...High pressure drifts farther into the western Atlantic
Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front pushing eastward
through the Deep South. Southeasterly winds begin to increase as the
pressure gradient tightens, becoming breezy during the day,
especially along the coast. Winds 10-15mph, with gusts up to 20-
25mph are forecast. As high pressure offshore becomes further
displaced, winds will veer southerly into Wednesday night, remaining
elevated. Mostly dry conditions will prevail. However, increasing
moisture along southeasterly winds could support a few showers along
the Treasure Coast Wednesday morning, as winds begin to veer
southerly, expect any showers to then remain offshore. Temperatures
will be above normal west of I-95, reaching the mid to upper 80s
(perhaps approaching 90 in the interior). Along the coast,
temperatures will remain in the lower to mid-80s. Overnight lows in
the upper 60s to near 70.

Thursday-Friday...A trough moving from the central US into the Great
Lakes region Thursday into Thursday night will drag a surface cold
front through the local area. Models are in fairly good agreement on
timing, which has slowed since last night`s forecast. Showers and
storms along the front now look to approach the area Thursday
morning, reaching northern Lake and Volusia Counties early
afternoon. The front is then forecast to continue southward late
afternoon into the evening, clearing the Treasure Coast near to
shortly after midnight. PoPs are forecast at 50-80% north of
Melbourne and 30-40% to the south. Forecast CAPE remains modest for
the frontal passage (<1500J/kg) and mid-level lapse rates are also
forecast to be meager. However, Bulk Shear 35-40kts could support a
few strong wind gusts, especially since steering flow looks to be
around 45-50kts. The best chance for strong to possibly severe wind
gusts looks to be north of I-4, as the front will be weakening as it
pushes southward. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
areas north of I-4 in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather.
Drier air filters into the area behind the front, with no
mentionable PoPs in the forecast for land areas on Friday.

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions outside
of convection on Thursday. Southwesterly winds will increase shortly
after sunrise, becoming 20-25mph with gusts 30-35mph. A few gusts to
40mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory is looking increasingly
likely for Thursday. Winds will veer northerly behind the front,
remaining breezy Thursday evening before diminishing into early
Friday morning. By the daytime hours on Friday, northwesterly winds
are expected to be 10-15mph.

The later onset of showers and storms compared to this time
yesterday has led to an increase in the high temperature forecast
for Thursday. Thursday afternoon looks to be the hottest of the
week, as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the area. A few record highs will be challenged. The highest
temperatures look to be Brevard/Osceola Counties southward, where
cloud cover will be lower into the afternoon. Increasing humidity
will also lead to apparent temperatures in the lower to mid-90s,
with some upper 90s possible. Will see relief Thursday night behind
the front, as temperatures fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Then, relatively seasonable highs expected Friday, in the lower to
mid-80s.

Saturday-Tuesday...High pressure builds into the Southeast US this
weekend, then drifts offshore into the Atlantic into early next
week. Dry air over the local area (PWATs less than 1") will lead to
dry conditions through the period and limited cloud cover. Northerly
winds Saturday morning veer onshore Sunday through Tuesday,
remaining around 10-15mph each day. A warming trend will cause highs
in the lower to mid-80s Saturday (with upper 70s along the Volusia
County coast) to increase into the mid to upper 80s (and even near
90 across the interior) by Tuesday. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s will also be warming, reaching the lower to mid-60s by
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Today - Tonight... SE winds 12-17 KT remain steady throughout the
period, producing occasionally poor boating conditions for small
craft. Seas 2-4 FT nearshore, up to 5 FT in the Gulf Stream.
Isolated showers will be possible, especially south of Cape
Canaveral.

Wednesday-Saturday...Poor boating conditions Wednesday morning
become hazardous into Thursday, as a cold front approaches the
local area. Southerly winds 15-20kts Wednesday increase to
20-25kts Wednesday night, then up to 25-30kts well offshore
Thursday. Gusts to gale-force will be possible. Seas 4-6ft build
to 6-8ft during this period. A line of showers and storms will
accompany the frontal passage Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

Winds begin to ease Friday, as the pressure gradient relaxes behind
the front. Northwest winds 10-15kts Friday veer to northeast into
Saturday. Seas up to 5-7ft diminish to 3-5ft, with dry conditions
prevailing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Today...Relative humidity values will be closer to 50% along the
coast. Generally from Lake County and down the Kissimmee Basin,
relative humidity readings are projected to fall to near 40% this
afternoon. East/southeast winds gusting to around 20-25 mph may
promote localized fire-sensitive weather conditions well inland.

Wednesday-Thursday...Min RH values 35-45% forecast west of I-95
Wednesday, as south-southeasterly winds begin to increase ahead of
an approaching cold front. Winds becoming 10-15mph, with gusts
20- 25mph, especially along the coast. The cold front will push
through the local area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night,
bringing scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms,
some of which could produce strong wind gusts. Outside of
convection, windy conditions (gusts 30-40mph), min RH 40-45%, and
high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will lead to very
sensitive fire weather conditions. A Wind Advisory looks likely
for Thursday.

Friday-The Weekend...As high pressure builds into the area, winds
will decrease to 10-15mph. However, drier air will once again
return, with min RH values 30-35% Friday, and 25-30% for the
weekend. The lowest RH looks to be over the interior. This will
maintain sensitive fire weather conditions.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  82  68 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  82  66  86  70 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  79  66  82  69 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  80  66  84  69 /   0  20  20   0
LEE  84  65  86  69 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  83  64  86  69 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  83  65  86  69 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  80  65  84  68 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Law
LONG TERM....Schaper
AVIATION...Law