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000
FXUS62 KMLB 091956
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Tonight-Wednesday...Surface low pressure develops across Texas early
Wednesday morning as a mid level cut of low tracks above. High
pressure across the western Atlantic drifts seaward, and a pressure
gradient tightens. Locally, southeast winds remain breezy, gusting
between 20-25 mph closer to the coast. A few showers are forecast to
return across the local Atlantic waters tonight into tomorrow, and
onshore flow could promote light precip accumulations for coastal
communities. The best chance for showers exists across southern
Brevard and the Treasure Coast (~20%). Low temperatures mostly range
the L/M60s, remaining slightly warmer along the coast. High
temperatures climb into the M/U80s west of I-95, ranging the L80s
eastward.

Wednesday Night-Thursday...Increasingly humid and windy conditions
are forecast to build over the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Mid level ridging slides east out over the Atlantic as 500mb height
falls begin early Thursday morning over north-central Florida.
Temperatures in the 70s Wednesday evening will only fall several
degrees, into the upper 60s and low 70s by early Thursday. Combined
with dewpoints climbing into the mid and upper 60s, it is going to
feel muggy out there Thursday morning. Perhaps more noticeable,
southerly winds will increase as a pressure gradient strengthens
ahead of an approaching cold front. Sky conditions, especially
farther south toward the Treasure Coast, are forecast to remain
partly cloudy through at least the early afternoon on Thursday.
Farther north expect a mix of high clouds with some developing
cumulus from midday onward. Temperatures respond accordingly, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s along and north of I-4 to highs in the
lower 90s from Orlando southward. A couple of daily high temperature
records could even be approached from Melbourne southward.

Winds during the day increase to 25-30 mph (sustained) with gusts 35-
40+ mph. If this forecast holds, a Wind Advisory will be needed for
the day on Thursday. A broken line of showers and embedded lightning
storms are forecast to develop ahead of the approaching cold front,
arriving sometime in the afternoon. Model guidance is still sorting
out the time of arrival for convection and ultimately the FROPA. The
preceding atmosphere appears it will be modestly unstable,
especially nearer to the surface, but a lot of factors will be
working against robust convective growth and maintenance into the
late afternoon and evening. Poor mid level lapse rates (around
6C/km) and MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg appears similar to a cold frontal
passage we had not too long ago. Unidirectional speed shear (40-50kt
850mb winds) may support some stronger wind gusts from the most
organized storms, which appears most favorable near and north of I-
4. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight these areas
in a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms. Activity will likely
weaken as it progresses south across central Florida Thursday
evening. In total, 0.25" to 0.50" of rain is forecast for the
northern two-thirds of the area, with lower amounts of a trace to
0.20" across the Treasure Coast.

Friday-Monday...Drier conditions resume late week into next weekend
with more seasonable temperatures expected through at least
Saturday. Highs in the upper 70s (coast) to mid 80s (interior)
appear reasonable. A warming trend begins Sunday as surface flow
veers more onshore and high pressure centers over the southeast U.S.
By Monday, highs across interior locations will be pushing the mid
80s to near 90 degrees once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Gusty southeast winds begin to diminish after sunset, falling to
around 6-11 kts. Breezy conditions then return into late morning
with gusts increasing between 20-25 kts. Cloud cover builds
overnight, remaining VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Tonight-Wednesday...Increasing southeast winds around 15-20 kts will
promote poor boating conditions late tonight into Wednesday. Seas of
4-5 ft, increase to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Isolated showers return
from Cape Canaveral southward late tonight, with coverage expanding
north tomorrow afternoon.

Thursday-Saturday...Hazardous boating conditions are forecast
through Thursday as a cold front sweeps across the local waters. S
winds 20-25+ kt in the morning increase to 25-30kt offshore during
the day. Seas build to 5-6 ft nearshore and up to 8 ft offshore
Thursday afternoon. Showers and isolated lightning storms,
especially north of Sebastian Inlet, may produce locally strong
winds and higher seas from the afternoon into the evening.

Drier and improving boating conditions resume Friday morning with NW
winds lingering offshore up to 15-20 kt. Poor conditions may
redevelop with a northerly wind surge late Friday night into
Saturday morning across the Gulf Stream. Winds relax and veer
onshore Sunday as high pressure builds over the waters. 10-14 kt
winds veer SE on Monday with dry conditions and high pressure
remaining in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Wednesday...Minimum relative humidity values remain just above
critical thresholds across the far interior, ranging 35-40 percent.
Southeast winds become breezy into the afternoon, increasing fire
sensitivities across the interior. Isolated showers will be possible
along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward.

Thursday-Monday...Windy conditions are forecast Thursday with gusts
reaching 40+ mph at times. An approaching cold front will bring
shower and lightning storm chances to the area Thursday afternoon
and evening. Behind the front on Friday, conditions begin to dry out
with NW winds 10-15 mph and gusts around 20 mph. Minimum relative
humidity values fall into the 30s (possibly the upper 20s) Friday
afternoon, so fire sensitive conditions may develop, mainly over the
interior.

Relative humidity values plummet Saturday and Sunday afternoons into
the 20s (primarily west of I-95). Winds 10-15 mph from the northeast
Saturday afternoon veer east-southeast by Sunday afternoon. Fire
sensitive to near critical conditions are possible this weekend and
into early next week, especially as fuels begin to dry out from
recent rains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  81  68  87 /   0  10  10  80
MCO  66  86  70  89 /   0  10   0  70
MLB  67  81  69  90 /   0  20  10  50
VRB  68  83  68  92 /  20  20  10  40
LEE  64  85  69  85 /   0   0  10  80
SFB  64  85  69  89 /   0  10  10  70
ORL  65  86  69  89 /   0  10   0  70
FPR  66  83  68  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Law
LONG TERM...Schaper
AVIATION...Law