926
FXUS64 KMOB 010503
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Patchy dense fog is expected to develop overnight with ceilings
and visbys lowering to IFR/LIFR levels after midnight. Conditions
improve by mid morning on Wednesday. /13

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue
pushing out of the area as a vigorous upper shortwave trough
slowly progresses off the east coast. Following this, ridging
aloft will build in to our east with surface high pressure also
building over the southeastern US. Tonight, fog and low stratus
both appear likely across the area with some locally dense fog
possible as a warm nose appears evident just below 1km. If surface
winds continue to die down with clear skies prevailing throughout
the evening, more widespread dense fog may be possible. Tonight,
low temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 60s
inland with upper 60s near the coast.

Tomorrow, clear skies and benign weather will prevail as large-scale
subsidence keeps skies clear. Surface winds will be variable through
the afternoon before once again becoming southerly with high
pressure to our east. High temperatures are expected to reach the
mid to upper 80s areawide. /TAE

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Upper ridging will continue to remain in
place through the short and long term with southerly flow at the
surface persisting as well. A few shortwave upper troughs are
expected to pass through the south/central plains before ejecting
off through the MS River Valley to the Great Lakes region as upper
ridging over the Southeast holds strong. With the better forcing
confined to our northernmost AL and MS counties, PoP`s will
generally range from 15-30% Friday through Sunday. Some instability
will be present as a result of the persistent southerly flow with
scattered showers and thunderstorms appearing possible across the
aforementioned areas.

With large-scale subsidence aloft as upper ridging persists through
the extended forecast, temperatures will trend toward seasonally
high with afternoon high temperatures generally hitting the mid 80s
to perhaps as high as 90 north of I-10. Areas south of I-10 can
expect highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows through the
extended period will generally remain in the 60s. /TAE

MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Winds will generally taper off as high pressure slides into
the forecast area mid-week. Light southerly flow will prevail with
occasional increases to around 10-15mph each afternoon as the
seabreeze propagates inland. With high pressure over the area, no
storms are expected over the next few days. /TAE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  85  66  85  65  85  66  86 /   0   0   0  10  10  10   0   0
Pensacola   65  82  67  82  67  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0
Destin      68  81  69  82  69  83  70  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   60  89  62  88  62  88  63  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20  10  10
Waynesboro  61  89  64  84  62  88  63  89 /   0   0  10  30  20  20  10  10
Camden      60  89  64  85  64  85  63  86 /   0   0   0  10  20  20  10  10
Crestview   60  89  61  88  62  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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