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000
FNUS73 KMPX 151218
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for River Terrace Prairie Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
718 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the River Terrace Prairie Rx fire, relative humidity will be
roughly 50-60 percent at ignition, before falling to 20-25
percent this afternoon. An isolated shower is possible this
morning, however any raindrops will not amount to much and
elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the day. Light
early morning winds will increase out of the east, sustaining
between 10-15 mph this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning.
Temperature.........47 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /5000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /42000 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....    SCH
Weather type....    RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  51  57  59  61  64  66  67  67  68  67  66
RH..............58  52  38  33  31  28  26  24  26  23  25  27
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.10  13  14  14  13  13  14  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  15  16  14  12  9   10  13  14  15  16  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 18 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (41000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 22 mph shifting to the southeast 24
                    to 28 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 20 to 26 mph with gusts to
                    around 37 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning and early
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (71300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 28 to 36 mph shifting to the east 32
                    to 33 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Dominic Ruis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410870.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dominic.ruis@state.mn.us