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000
FXUS63 KMQT 192300
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
700 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph through tonight.
- Hit and miss precipitation into Saturday, then dry through
  Monday.
- Fire weather concerns increase through Monday with lowering
  RH`s and breezy winds.
- Best chances for precipitation arrive early next week with
  low pressure system. Then dry weather through Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 432 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Scattered rain and snow showers in the cold cyclonic flow of a
northern Ontario low have been persistent on radar all day and are
expected to linger through tonight.  With minimal QPF though, any
accumulations through the period will not amount to more than a few
hundredths of an inch, a tenth of an inch at most.  The main story
today has been the strong west winds with widespread gusts in the 20
to 25 mph range.  Strongest reports have been across the Keweenaw
where gusts have peaked near 45 mph, but it has been very localized.
 With a consistent pressure gradient though, west winds will
continue to gust up to 25 to 35 mph through the night. Meanwhile, it
has been a chilly day with highs only topping off in the 40s, and
tonight will even be a tad below normal with projected lows dipping
into the mid 20s across the interior west. Elsewhere, upper 20s/low
30s will be predominant over the remainder of Upper Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Saturday starts with a broad trough over eastern Canada and the
Great Lakes alongside a sfc high pressure building southeast over
the Plains. With Lake Superior around 2C and 850mb temps dropping
down to around -10C by Saturday morning, delta-ts will be just shy
of the ideal profile for LES. Expect a brief period of light snow
showers in the morning as a shortwave trough moves east through the
Great Lakes. Inversion heights will be around 5kft with some
moisture reaching into the DGZ, however dry air increasing at the
sfc with limited forcing will be limiting factors. Overall
confidence in snow showers is low with dry weather expected in the
afternoon as cloud cover clears out. Accumulations should remain
below 0.5". Temps will be cooler than normal during the day in the
40s; temps drop into the mid to upper 20s in the interior with low
to mid 30s along the lakeshores Saturday night. While west to
northwest winds will be gusting up to 15-25 mph during the early
part of the day, min RHs are expected to remain above 30%, lowering
fire weather concerns. A very weak shortwave drops south over the UP
Saturday night, but dry model soundings indicate no precip is to be
expected.

The mid level trough axis moves from northern Ontario on Sunday into
Quebec Sunday night. PVA stays north of of Lake Superior, but a sfc
trough and cold front will drop south across the UP Sunday afternoon
increasing cloud cover and bringing some gusty northwest winds up to
20-25 mph. With highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest south
central) and low level lapse rates around 7-8C/km, RHs will approach
25-30%. This increases fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon,
especially over the south central UP. Winds become light again
overnight with sfc high pressure moving east over the UP. With good
radiative cooling, lows fall into the mid 20s to low 30s with
coldest temps expected over the east where the best subsidence will
be. Warmer than normal temps are more broadly forecast on Monday in
the mid 40s to low 60s, warmest interior west. Elevated fire weather
concerns return Monday afternoon with min RHs in the mid 20s to mid
30s, lowest west, and gusts increasing to around 15-20 mph.

A mid level closed low forms over Saskatchewan Sunday night, moving
southeast through the midwest on Tuesday as it opens up in to a
trough. The trough then continues southeast into the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. An associated sfc low follows a similar track, just a bit
more to the north through the Great Lakes Basin. This will bring
the best chances for precip during the extended forecast with
showers moving in from the west Monday night, continuing into
Tuesday night. Main p-type will be rain, however there is some low
chances for some snow to mix in on the back side of the low (<50%
chance). Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday
bringing back dry weather into Friday while mid level ridging over
the rockies moves east over the Great Lakes. Uncertainty in the
forecast grows from here regarding the timing and track of
shortwaves riding northeast into the Great Lakes late next week into
the weekend bringing our next precip. Thus, left NBM PoPs which
increase Friday into the weekend as models indicate a sfc low or two
ejecting off the rockies and heading northwest into the region. The
southwest flow does bring a return to above normal temps late this
week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected early this evening before
dipping down into MVFR later tonight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, expect the light snow showers to continue across the TAF
sites tonight into Saturday morning, with an intensification in the
shower activity looking to happen late tonight after midnight. While
the chances are low (around 20%), we could see vis drop down to IFR
for an hour or two tonight through Saturday morning over KCMX and
KIWD. Otherwise, there is about a 50% chance across all of the TAF
sites that the cigs will get below 2 kft; while some of the model
guidance such as the RAP13 is hinting at this, the statistical
guidance such as the LAMP, MET, and MAV only have conditions
deteriorating to as low as the 2 to 3 kft cig range. Therefore,
given the high uncertainty, I`ve included a SCT grouping in each of
the TAFs late tonight into Saturday morning. Cigs raise and the
clouds scatter out Saturday as ridging tries to move into the region
from the west. Thus, we should see a universal return to VFR
conditions by around noon Saturday. Gusty W to NW winds are expected
throughout the TAF period across all of the terminals, with the
highest winds expected over KCMX (with gusts up to 30 knots
possible).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Widespread westerly winds of 20-30 kts with some gales to 35 kts
over the central 3rd of the lake will continue into this evening.
Winds then veer northwest tonight, maintaining around 20-30 kts. On
Saturday winds back west, dropping down to around 20-25 kts Saturday
night into Sunday. A cold front drops south across the lake on
Sunday. That being said, high pressure building in from the west
will increase stability and lower winds below 20 kts across the
entire lake by Sunday night. Winds then are expected to remain below
20 kts through Monday as high pressure moves east over the Great
Lakes. A low pressure system early next week will see east winds
increasing to 20-25 kts Monday night, becoming north 20-30 kts
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds look to fall back below 20 kts on
Wednesday behind the low pressure system, continuing through most of
next week as high pressure returns.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     LSZ240.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     LSZ241-247>249.

  Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>244-263-
     264.

  Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for LSZ242>244.

  Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ245-246-265>267.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...Jablonski