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000
FXUS63 KMQT 140830
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
430 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temps (lower to mid 60s) and better mixing will lead to
gusty NW winds and pronounced drying this afternoon near the WI
border. Will be issuing a Fire Weather SPS for the counties
bordering WI.
- Dry and mostly sunny elsewhere today, although it will probably
stay cooler with maybe some clouds for eastern shoreline areas
near Lake Superior under a steady NW wind.
- Mostly dry weather through Tuesday morning. RHs fall to around 30%
in the interior west Sunday and Monday, causing some fire weather
concern.
- A low pressure tracks through the Upper Great Lakes during the
midweek, causing widespread rain showers.
- Chances of precipitation remain possible (~50%) into the late-
week, though uncertainty exists on timing, intensity, and
precipitation type.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Isolated rain showers will be ending early this morning over eastern
counties as the weather-making shortwave and associated sfc low shift
east out the area. Conditions today will be dry under abundant
sunshine for most areas, although clouds could linger over the east
into the afternoon.

The focus quickly shifts to elevated fire weather concerns for
inland counties along the WI border this afternoon as increased
heating and mixing will lead to gusty NW winds and lowering dew
points and RHs. Fcst soundings and local mixed dew point
guidance indicate a high potential for northwest wind gusts in the
20-25 mph range and RHs lower to 25% or less across the counties
bordering WI. Despite the rainfall last night, with these gusty
winds and low RHs fine fuels will likely dry out quickly this
afternoon. As a result, I`ve decided to match up with GRB and issue
a fire weather SPS for these WI border counties this afternoon into
early evening.

As mentioned before, expect dry conditions across the area today
under building sfc high pressure and mid-level subsidence.
Cooler n-nw winds coming off Lake Superior will work to limit
mixing for counties and locations near the Lake Superior,
effectively keeping temps cooler and winds not quite as gusty.
As a result, there should be minimal to no fire weather concerns
elsewhere today.

Look for highs today ranging from the 50s across the north and east
with the onshore n-nw flow off Lake Superior to the lower to mid 60s
along the WI border.

High pressure will continue the dry conditions tonight. Look for
lows mostly in the lower to mid 30s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The extended forecast starts out dry with good agreement in the
model guidance of a more wet and active period for mid next week. A
mid level closed low over CA on Sunday makes its way eastward over
the Rockies by Monday night, lifting northeast over the Central
Plains through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a trough sets up in the Canadian
Prairie Provinces with a east-southeast track set for the rest of the
week. These features continue their trajectories into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, phasing together Wednesday/Wednesday night. The
resulting closed low/trough will then progress eastward through the
weekend as ridging builds back over the western U.S. This is where
guidance begins to really diverge, but northwest flow over the Upper
Great Lakes with shortwaves riding through the region provide
additional chances for precip this weekend into next week.

Starting Sunday, the shortwave fueling tonght`s precip chances will
be located over the northern end of Lake Superior. While model
soundings show low level moisture in the lowest 5kft in the morning
(also visible in PWATs with values around 0.4" to 0.5"), the
shortwave`s associated PVA remains north of the CWA. Drier northwest
flow also erodes the low level moisture, lowering PWATs by ~0.1"
while q-vector divergence is noted over the UP. Overall, this likely
will delay the low level clouds off Lake Superior from clearing as
the shortwave departs to the southeast, but the area will stay dry.
Despite the lingering cloud cover, dry mid levels will help mix down
lower dew point temps, especially in the southern half of the UP.
This would causing RHs to tank in the afternoon, especially in the
interior west near the WI/MI state line where low level lapse rates
approach 6-7C/km. With highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s near Lake
Superior and mid 50s to possibly upper 60s in the interior, min RHs
will be in the upper 20 to mid 30% range. With wind gusts around 15
to 20 mph, counties bordering WI flirt with elevated fire weather
conditions. Will need to monitor these conditions as we get closer.
With sfc high pressure building in from the northwest Sunday night,
dry weather and light winds continue. Temps fall into the 30s.

Dry weather holds through Monday with mid level ridging building
into the region and sfc high pressure extending over the Upper Great
Lakes. While the right entrance region of the upper level jet
approaches the CWA from the southwest during the day, there is no
significant shortwave providing PVA. Also weak q-vector convergence
looks to remain outside the CWA, yielding little to no forcing for
precip. This continued dry weather increases the fire weather risks
as low level lapse rates approach 7-8C/km and model soundings show a
significantly dry profile. Expect another warmer than normal day
with highs near Lake Superior in the low to mid 50s and mid 50s to
mid 60s for the interior. Lower dew points mix down again during the
afternoon yielding min RHs in the mid 20 to 30% range. Luckily, fire
weather concerns will be lower as winds are expected to be lighter
than Sunday, staying below 15 mph. Regardless, fire weather partners
should continue to monitor this for changes. Temps fall back into the
30s (coldest east) Monday night as clouds increase from the
southwest ahead of the next system.

Moving on to the midweek system, the southern stream deep trough
will be positioned over Plains Tuesday morning while the northern
stream trough will broadly span British Columbia and Alberta. The
southern trough lifts northeast through Tuesday night toward the
Upper Great Lakes while the northern one forms a closed low over
Saskatchewan. Cyclogenesis begins on the lee side of the Rockies on
Tuesday. The sfc low then weakens as it follows the southern trough
into the Great Lakes for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Dry weather
looks to maintain during the day Tuesday, with showers then lifting
north over the UP Tuesday night and Wednesday when the better WAA,
PVA, and q-vector convergence arrives. NBM PoPs then drop off
Wednesday night as dry northwest flow drastically diminishes
available moisture; PWATs around 1" drop to ~0.3. However, with the
current uncertainty in the guidance surrounding the trough/closed
low`s track east through Canada/Great Lakes late next week and into
the weekend, NBM PoPs were left around 20-50% Thursday into the
weekend. Winds will be worth monitoring as NBM shows gusts around 25-
35 mph Tuesday through Wednesday. Another thing to watch with the
late week precipitation relative to the mid-week system will be
precip type. Uncertainty remains high at this time, but GFS and EPS
probabilities of at least 1 inch of snow begin increasing Thursday
night into Friday with around 20-40% by 0Z Saturday.

Additional shortwaves then ride the northwest flow over the Upper
Great Lakes late this weekend into early next week bringing
additional chances for precip. Confidence remains low with the given
spread in the guidance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period for IWD and for most of
the period at SAW. SAW will see some fog late tonight which will
bring it down to MVFR for a couple hours. CMX will have rain which
will help to bring in an MVFR deck by late Sun morning off of Lake
Superior which will lower to IFR/LIFR by Sun afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds late this afternoon into the evening hours will become
northeast as a weak low pressure system tracks east into the Great
Lakes. However, winds are expected to remain below 20 kts through
Monday with high pressure building southeast into the Upper Great
Lakes Monday, holding into Monday night. Our attention then turns to
a stronger low pressure system mid week. This system looks to eject
off the Rockies Monday night, lifting northeast into Wisconsin by
Wednesday afternoon as it weakens slightly. The low then continues
northeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday night with troughing
swinging behind it over Lake Superior Thursday/Friday. East gales
are likely (60-90% chance of gusts exceeding 34 kts) over the west
Tuesday afternoon, expanding eastward over the lake into Wednesday
as the system moves through. Winds remain around 20-30 kts Wednesday
night into the weekend, quickly becoming westerly behind the low
Wednesday night. Winds then veer northwest Thursday night/Friday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Jablonski