471
FXUS66 KMTR 280531
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1031 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures
through next week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures
along the coast cooler through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mostly sunny skies around the Bay Area and Central Coast this
afternoon. A little daytime heating with meager moisture has led
to a few weather cumulus build ups over the higher terrain. A warm
up was mentioned on previous discussions and the latest 24 hour
trend indicates many locations are running a few degrees warmer
than Friday. Observations still indicated some breezy conditions
this afternoon too. Gusts 25 to 35 mph have been reported along
the coast.

Tonight through Sunday - A weak shortwave ridge will nudge its way
S and E this evening and early tonight. A few high clouds will
spill over this ridge (which can already be seen on satellite).
The high clouds area associated with a system dragging a front
across far NorCal. A few clouds overhead, but at the surface
patchy stratus will develop again tonight with clouds piling up
along the San Mateo and Monterey Bay coast. The aforementioned
front will ultimately reach the Bay Area Sunday afternoon, but
with little fan fare as it falls apart. All in all, pretty quiet
weather to round out the weekend. Temperatures on Sunday will be
similar to slightly warmer than Saturday. Still expecting some
breezy onshore flow, especially along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Longwave pattern shows more zonal flow setting up through at least
midweek. Zonal flow aloft will keep more of the same: subtle
warming (inland areas), dry conditions, patchy night and morning
stratus, and breezy onshore flow. Speaking of winds, probabilistic
guidance really highlights northerly winds over the coastal waters
Monday and Tuesday. Current forecast has trended upward with
regards to winds as well. Still not strong enough for a wind
advisory for the coast, but gusts of 40mph plus will possible.
Probably not the best beach days for Monday/Tuesday. Elsewhere
away from the coast there is a high likelihood (greater than 70%)
of seeing gusts over 25 mph.

The second half of the work week will feature additional warming
with far interior location eclipsing 80 degrees. Still breezy out
of the NW so temperatures will hold mostly steady along the coast
and bays. The warm up and breezy NW flow finally ease next weekend
as the zonal flow becomes more amplified with approaching upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Patchy stratus across the higher elevations of the East Bay, San
Mateo Peninsula, and northern Monterey County. Stratus coverage is
expected to expand through the night, with MVFR ceilings expected to
spill over into the Santa Clara Valley and the Monterey Bay region.
Light to moderate northwest flow overnight, building through the day
on Sunday with gusts up to 20 to 30 knots.

Vicinity of SFO... Low confidence (up to 10% probability) of MVFR
ceilings early Sunday morning. Breezy west-northwest winds will
build through Sunday with gusts up to 35 knots, around a 10-20%
probability of gusts over 35 knots on Sunday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR ceilings developing overnight as
patchy stratus expands. Stratus clears out Sunday morning as
breezy onshore flow develops, gusting to 20 knots. Winds diminish
on Sunday evening, with most stratus development coming after the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1030 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong northwesterly winds to will persist through the weekend
posing hazardous conditions for small crafts. Periods of gale
force gusts will occur through the weekend into the work-week,
especially over the coastal waters. Winds continue to increase
during the first half of the week lasting through Thursday.
Moderate period northwesterly swell will continue to move through
the waters through Thursday causing wave heights up to 12 feet.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry
     Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...SO

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