798
FXUS63 KOAX 281734
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1234 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday, with the potential
  for a few brief, weak tornadoes.

- Another round of showers and storms possible
  Tuesday/Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today through Monday...

More robust storm development over parts of Kansas and Missouri
effectively blocked stronger storms from developing over parts of
the forecast area Saturday. Overnight lows dipped into the 50s,
with scattered showers moving into eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the day
today, as a surface low moves across the forecast area. There is a
slight chance (5-15%) for a few isolated storms to develop ahead of
the incoming dry line, and potentially produce hail up to the size
of quarters, gusty winds, and perhaps a couple of weak tornadoes.
While uncertainty in this scenario is fairly high, given the
extensive cloud cover and stronger convection to our southeast, the
best chance looks to be over far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa, from around noon to 6 PM.

Lingering showers and storms look to clear the forecast area by
midnight tonight, with dry conditions prevailing through Monday.
Highs today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s
for the majority of the region.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances return by mid week, with a cold front swinging
through the Central Plains on Tuesday, followed by a warm front
lifting back through the region ahead of the next surface low,
Wednesday. While the details regarding timing and location remain
unclear at this time, there will be the chance for showers and
storms, a few of which could be strong to severe.

Off and on precipitation chances continue through the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and low 70s each
day, with Tuesday looking to be the only outlier, as highs could
reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered showers and storms are in place at all three
terminals, with IFR ceilings expected to persist for most of the
forecast period at KOFK. Farther south and east, KLNK and KOMA
continue to chug along with largely MVFR ceilings while
visibilities go briefly IFR as strong showers and storms move
through. Based on current shower and storm activity, they should
continue at KOMA and KLNK for the next hour and a half to three
hours, ending first at KLNK then KOMA. Winds are currently out
of the west or northwest at KOFK and that wind shift will spread
to KLNK and KOMA, with westerly winds expected by late this
afternoon. Ceiling restrictions are expected to begin easing
tomorrow morning at KOMA and KLNK while KOFK may have to wait
into the afternoon for the return of VFR conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen