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000
FXUS66 KOTX 091005
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
305 AM PDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will bring breezy to locally windy conditions across the
region, along with showers and small thunderstorm threat mainly
over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme Eastern Washington. The
weather pattern heading into the weekend will bring a few chances
for rain showers along with a warming trend. High Temperatures for
most areas will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A weak wave continues to push through the
region bringing light snow showers to the mountains and light rain
to the lower elevations of the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern
Washington. Ensembles are keeping probabilities of 80% or higher for
greater than 0.1" of precip in the Cascades and higher elevations of
the Idaho Panhandle. The mountain snow amounts are expected to be
less than an inch across the region. Ensembles have increased the
potential thunderstorm threat. It is now up to 20% probability of
lightning for Northeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle. Current
Storm Prediction Center forecast has the area under general
thunderstorm threat. It was enough add slight chance of
thunderstorms to the forecast in these areas. Impacts include
infrequent lightning, erratic winds, and small hail. Winds will also
be something to watch. Todays wind outlook continues to be gusty
with sustained into the upper teens and low 20s. Gusts will be into
the 30 to 40 MPH range. Portions of the Waterville Plateau, Lower
Okanogan Valley, and Upper Central Columbia Basin could see
localized gusts into the mid 40s MPH through the afternoon. Highs
will be in the 50s to low 60s. Lows will be in the 30s to low 40s.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to build into the region on
Wednesday. It will bring calmer winds and dry, warmer couple of
days. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s and 60s. Lows will
be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC

Thursday through Monday: Ensembles are coming into better
agreement during the extended period, with around 80% of the model
clusters favoring a milder and mainly dry weekend followed by
colder temperatures. The outlier 20% are going are quicker to
bring in the cooler air (starting over the weekend).

Before then a low drops south off the coast near 135W on Thursday
and Friday putting the area in southwest flow. Mid level waves
coming up combined with increasing precipitable water that reaches
150-180% of normal over SE Washington into the Central Panhandle
Mountains will deliver a chance of showers. The NBM continues to
show a 20% chance of thunderstorms in these areas for Friday
afternoon and evening as well. A decaying mid level front will
also bring a chance of showers to the Cascades and northern
mountains during this period. Then over the weekend the closed low
moves well to our south across Central California while an upper
trough moves into British Columbia. This places the Inland NW in a
generally dry west- southwest flow with limited chances for
showers. High temperatures in this scenario reach the upper 60s to
mid 70s which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Then on Monday the
trough over British Columbia drops south, sending a cold front
across the region. The ECMWF ensemble wind gusts show high chances
for wind gusts exceeding 30 MPH over much of the region, with the
NBM showing a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH in Central
WA. The cold front given the westerly flow will likely favor the
bulk of the precipitation over the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. With the falling snow levels will have to watch for
potential snow impacts for Stevens and Lookout Passes. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Clouds will persist overnight, with a decreasing ceiling
at most sites as the light precip moves into the region. Southerly
winds will continue to channel down the Okanogan Valley 20-30kts.
Increasing chance of MVFR ceilings and precip after 07Z for GEG-
SFF-COE-PUW-LWS as a shortwave passes through Eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle. Highest confidence of precip is at PUW,
with lowest confidence at LWS with mention of vcsh and GEG/SFF
with prob30 groups. Winds will increase 17-20Z and continue
through 02Z at all TAF locations with gusts 20-25kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The HREF shows a
50% chance of MVFR conditions at PUW after 12Z, and a 30-50%
chance for COE aft 12Z. Confidence is higher that MVFR conditions
will not be seen at GEG/SFF and LWS.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  31  57  37  62  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  31  57  36  61  42 /  40   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        54  32  57  37  63  44 /  50  10   0   0   0  30
Lewiston       62  38  63  41  69  49 /  40   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       59  30  59  34  61  39 /  20   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      52  32  55  35  58  41 /  70  20   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        50  32  55  37  61  45 /  80  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     62  32  63  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  36  61  43  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  34  62  40  63  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$