616
FXUS66 KOTX 071157
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect breezy winds and showery conditions across the Inland
Northwest Tuesday. A weak system will bring light rain and cloudy
conditions across north Idaho and far eastern Washington on
Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds into the region from the
west. This will bring warmer and drier weather through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday: A shortwave will move across the region today as an upper
level ridge begins to nudge onshore from the west and an upper level
closed low remains nearly stationary over the northern Plains. Radar
imagery early this morning shows a persistent Puget Sound
Convergence Zone providing precipitation to Snoqualmie and Stevens
Pass and showers over the Blue Mountains. I dont expect snow to
result in impacts to the roads with road temperatures remaining
above freezing.

Diurnal showers will be possible across eastern Washington and north
Idaho again this afternoon, but warmer air aloft will reduce the
overall coverage. Best chances will be in areas of rising terrain
where orographic influences will enhance the vertical lift.

Winds will be breezy today as a tight west to northwest pressure
gradient sets up across the northwest. The strongest gusts will be
felt across the lee of the Cascades into the Waterville Plateau and
the western Columbia Basin and across the Blues and the Palouse with
gusts 30 to 40 mph this afternoon.

Wednesday: Ridging will continue to shift inland Tuesday night into
Wednesday, ending the afternoon shower activity and breezy winds and
beginning an extended period of warm temperatures. A weak impulse
associated with the closed low over the Great Plains will rotate
into north Idaho from the northeast, but will struggle to make it
further west than far eastern Washington due to the ridge. As a
result, far eastern Washington and north Idaho will experience
cloudy skies and light precipitation Wednesday with warm and dry
weather across central Washington. Ridging will continue to shift
eastward Wednesday evening with clearing skies across far eastern
Washington and north Idaho through the night. /vmt

Thursday through Monday: Ridge in place allows for continued dry
conditions coupled with a warming trend that peaks for most, if not
all, locations over the weekend with widespread 80s Saturday and
Sunday. Approx 60 percent of the clusters show a less amplified ridge
overhead Monday with the remaining 40 percent showing either a zonal
flow or a more progressive southwest flow with the upper level ridge
axis positioning well east over Central Montana. This reorientation
of the ridge axis positioning Monday will allow for cooler
temperatures and possibly some hit and miss mountain and near
Cascade crest pops for precip Monday. These warm temperatures will
allow mountain snowpack melt to increase flows on many creeks and
rivers allowing some to approach bankfull conditions although the
threat of river flooding remains very low (less than 10%) across the
Inland NW. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will remain under a conditionally
unstable upper level trough of lower pressure through Tuesday.
Stratus has developed in the Idaho Panhandle and extend out into
the Palouse region. Expect MVFR conditions with ceilings down to 2
kft agl. at KPUW and KCOE through the early morning. Tuesday will
be another windy day with westerly wind gusts between 20-30 kts
across much of the exposed areas of the basin. Diurnally driven
showers are expected Tuesday afternoon and isolated to scattered
in coverage from KLWS to KCQV and points eastward. Showers will
be weaker compared to yesterday, with a less than 10% chance for
thunder.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence stratus for far eastern Washington and
north Idaho will clear out by the late morning as dry, westerly
winds continue across the region.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  39  65  41  75  46 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  57  39  62  41  72  45 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        53  36  57  38  70  45 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  43  63  44  75  50 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  36  70  37  77  43 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      55  41  62  42  72  45 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        50  39  56  42  70  47 /  30  20  30   0   0   0
Moses Lake     64  37  72  41  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  40  71  48  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  38  74  46  82  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$