Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 262326
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
726 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure centered across the Canadian Maritimes
extends southwestward across our area through tonight.
Meanwhile, low pressure continues to meander around well
offshore. A cold front is forecast to cross our region tonight,
where it will become nearly stationary along the coast. Low
pressure tracks northward along this front Thursday and Thursday
night before moving out to sea on Friday. A weak clipper system
may move through on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The onshore flow has resumed and clouds have returned to most
areas this evening. Little in the way of precip is expected
with the exception of some drizzle across the northern areas and
perhaps at the shore. Lows tonight will drop into the low/mid
40s. Winds will remain light mostly from the East.

On Wednesday, the upper ridge will have moved away and our area
will come under the influence of a slow moving front and upper
trough to the west. Morning clouds may thin somewhat (probably
less than today), then increase for the afternoon. A batch of
showers slowly move west to east across the region during the
day. Total rains of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch are
possible. Highs for Wednesday will reach the low/mid 50s for
most areas with 40s at the shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
What has changed...Most deterministic models are continuing
with the trend of the higher rain shifting east. Have reflected
this in the forecast, though held off on depicting as far east a
solution as what is being shown by some models until we see
more consistency in this trend.

For Thursday...The main story will be the axis of rain ahead of
the cold front as the low crosses off the southeastern U.S.
coast. As mentioned above, the models are trending in the right
direction to reduce our flood threat. Will keep monitoring it,
but if this trend continues, the main area to watch will be the
coastal plains. There will likely be a very sharp cutoff on the
northwest side by Thursday, so rain amounts are expected to be
very light for areas north and west of the fall line. Rain
should taper off quickly Thursday evening as the cold front
moves further off shore.

The main story on Friday will be the winds behind the front.
Expect a very tight pressure gradient, which will result in
northwest winds could gust near 35 kt, especially in the higher
terrain of the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long wave ridging building across the central CONUS should
result in seasonable temperatures and relatively benign weather
conditions this weekend into Monday of next week. A quick moving
shortwave trough may impact the area Saturday with a 20-30%
chance of rain and increasing clouds, however it will not be the
washout last Saturday was and the system overall does not look
very impactful. More widespread rain and a period of unsettled
weather looks likely as early as Tuesday, as most of the
deterministic guidance has an upper level low diving down from
Canada. A lot of timing and impact discrepancies with this
system but it bears watching over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Tonight... Lower CIGS slowly increasing over the area
this evening and this continues overnight. MVFR then IFR
expected most sites after midnight. While no VSBY issues are
expected for most sites, some fog may develop closer to the
coast, so we`ve included some KACY/KMIV with low/medium confid.
Light east to southeast winds overnight, becoming variable at
times.

Wednesday... Low confid with a possibility of CIGS becoming VFR
again (like today), though stronger onshore flow may preclude
this. We`ll offer some improvement to MVFR after 14Z/15Z again
with limited confid. Lower conditions likely during the
afternoon with rains arriving W to E. Light NE/E winds
expected.

Outlook...

Thursday...Periods of IFR possible in RA, especially at KACY
and KMIV.

Friday...VFR with NW winds gusting up to 35 kt.

Saturday and Sunday...Brief sub-VFR conditions possible Saturday
afternoon and night.

&&

.MARINE...
The SCA flag for the ocean will continue thru Wednesday night.
Seas along with a powerful swell continue for the coast. Earlier
today, buoy 44009 had a 13ft seas with a 14sec period.
Conditions will slowly relax as the coastal storm that is well
offshore moves away and weakens. Fair weather tonight then rains
developing later Wednesday.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...prolonged period of SCA conditions.
Winds could get close to gale force on Friday.

Saturday night into Sunday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low pressure system lingering well off the coast will result
in an extended duration of long period swells and rough surf
impacting the Atlantic coast through early this week.
Widespread minor flooding has occurred with this morning`s high
tide. Tidal surges remain around 2 feet above normal.

The forecast has trended down at Perth Amboy, Sandy Hook, and
Manasquan. Even the back bays within those areas are trending
down as well, and are currently forecast to stay below minor
flood. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisory for Middlesex and
Monmouth County has been cancelled.

For the rest of the tidal areas across the region, no changes
were made to the headlines. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in
effect for the tidal Delaware River, Delaware Bay, and Atlantic
coastline from Ocean County on south as widespread minor
flooding is expected with tonight`s high tide. A Coastal Flood
Advisory goes into effect for the Chesapeake Bay communities
within the Eastern Shore of Maryland early tomorrow morning as
widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide
tomorrow near daybreak.

Tidal surge anomalies have started to recede due to the
lessening influence of the offshore storm and moving further
away from the full moon. Following the overnight/early morning
high tide cycle tonight, coastal flood impacts will cease for
the most part. Likely due to continued runoff, some spotty minor
tidal flooding may linger through the week along the tidal
Delaware River. But otherwise, no further impacts/threats are
expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ020>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/Hoeflich/MPS
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
AVIATION...Johnson/OHara
MARINE...Johnson/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich/Staarmann


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.