827
FXUS62 KRAH 141353
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
952 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northward along the Carolina coast this
afternoon and evening as low pressure approaches from the west.
Low pressure will shift to the coast tonight and Wednesday. A cold
front will move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 952 AM Tuesday...

Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected into the
early evening hours, with less coverage toward the late evening to
overnight period. The morning analysis both at the surface and via
satellite reveals some interesting features that will be impactful
for the weather today/tonight. A pair of warm fronts appear
noticeable at the surface, on across southern AL to south/central
GA, while a secondary warm front may be over northern GA to central
SC. Moisture rich air is over much of the area with 60s dewpoints
over much of the region. Lower 70s dewpoints are presently confined
along SE GA and off the SC coast. A mid-level shortwave/surface low
is over the Midwest, with a cold front draped into western AR. On
satellite, while it took a few hours to see the circulation, an MCV
appears left over from last night`s convection. Its center appears
located over south-central GA, with the day-cloud phase showing some
weak cyclonic rotation.

Continued 925-700 mb WAA will continue to overspread the area into
the early evening as the warm front lifts north into the area. At
the same time, models continue to hint that the MCV will make a NE
movement this afternoon/evening into NE SC and parts of far SE NC.
As this happens, lift from the meso-low and WAA should favor
continued development of showers over the area. Embedded storms will
be possible this afternoon and evening. The best storm threat
appears from the Sandhills into the central Coastal Plain, when the
HRRR suggests 500-1000 J/kg of surface CAPE may move in ahead of or
north of the MCV. Favorable shear combined with this should favor a
locally damaging wind threat, but confidence is low on coverage and
location. Best severe timing today over this region would be from 3
PM to 8 PM based on the NCAR Neural Network guidance.

Shower and storm coverage appears to weaken considerably tonight and
overnight as energy from the MCV exits and the mid-level energy sets
up a dry slot. However, as the upper trough over the Midwest pivots
closer into KY/TN, convection developing over the TN valley could
impact the western Piedmont late tonight. Most CAMs suggest this
would dissipate with nocturnal stabilization and possible fog/low
stratus over the area. As such, confidence is low on this secondary
chance overnight, with the best chance being from 8 PM to 1-2 AM.
This could favor another severe risk in the southern Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Wed. afternoon and
early evening.

A compact shortwave trough centered over the TN Valley and southern
Appalachians will move east through the region Wednesday before
moving offshore Wednesday night. A low pressure will start the day
over central NC which will drag a cold front SE across the area
later in the day. We should start the day with plenty of stratus/fog
limiting destabilization somewhat. Then, some partial sunshine
should allow for heating and destabilization in the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. A few of these may
become strong to locally severe with the main threat of damaging
wind. Large hail would be a secondary threat. Expect highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s north to south.

Low clouds and fog may again be a problem Wednesday night if the
CAA is weak and delayed as some models suggest. Lows in the upper
50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

A series of upper level shortwaves will move across the Mid-Atlantic
region over the long term period. This will influence multiple
rounds of showers and storms mid week and over the weekend. At the
surface, another cold front is expected to move across the region
Thursday resulting in dry conditions. By Friday afternoon another
frontal boundary will move into the region with rain chances
increasing in the afternoon across the western Piedmont and
spreading east into the evening and overnight hours. For the
weekend, confidence for the weather pattern is low/medium as models
haven`t been very consistent on the timing of the next frontal
boundary.  For now, have increasing PoPs late Friday night with
showers continuing through Saturday. Depending where the surface low
is positioned by Sunday, that will result in how much more rainfall
Central NC will receive. Therefore, confidence for Sunday and Monday
is low for timing of precipitation, and medium for how much
precipitation. Some of the long term models show the low pressure
moving offshore by Monday resulting in a possibility for Monday to
be mostly dry. Temperatures over the period will be above average
with highs gradually increasing through the weekend. Thursday temps
will be in the low 80s whereas by the first part of next week temps
will be in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will give way to rain/showers that will develop
across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas this morning,
during which time IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to overspread
cntl NC. Associated rain may become moderate to heavy in intensity
at RDU, FAY, and RWI on Tue, especially where deeper showers and
isolated storms will be possible this afternoon. Rain will taper to
areas of drizzle and fog tonight with IFR to LIFR conditions likely.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions and possible fog will be possible early
Wed. Another period of showers or storms are possible Wed aftn/eve,
along with a chance of sub-VFR clouds early Thu. VFR should return
Thu aftn, with the next chance of showers possibly Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Badgett