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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161038
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
538 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the area at times this morning into early
  this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  risks.

- Windy conditions will develop today with southerly winds
  gusting up to 35-50 mph at times. The strongest winds will
  occur along and west of Highway 65.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday, with a few strong to severe storms possible possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper level low is located across western Kansas early this
morning with an area of surface low pressure located across
south central Nebraska. The upper level low will move northeast
across Kansas and Nebraska today before moving into Iowa this
evening. The surface low will track east across Nebraska also
moving into Iowa by this evening. As the surface low moves east,
the pressure gradient will tighten across the area allowing
gusty winds to develop across the region. The strongest winds
will impact locations across southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri primarily west of Highway 65. Model momentum
transfer shows the potential for gusts up to 30 to 40 mph east
of Highway 65 with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph at times west of
Highway 65. Some localized gusts over 50 mph could be possible.
Issued a Wind Advisory for 9AM this morning through 7PM this
evening for locations generally along and west of Highway 65 and
along and north of Highway 60.

A cold front extends south from the surface low from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Storms have developed
along the front across north central Kansas into central
Nebraska early this morning. Additional storms have developed
ahead of the front across central Kansas early this evening.
This activity is likely elevated in nature. The area of
instability this activity is currently in will lift northeast
into northwestern Missouri early this morning. This activity
could clip the western portions of the area this morning,
bringing the risk for hail up to pennies. The cap should
increase to the east this morning, leading to the activity
weakening as it moves east of I-49.

Instability will redevelop from west to east across the area
later this morning into this afternoon as the cold front moves
east and as the upper level low lifts to the northeast across
the central Plains. The best instability will be north of the
area across Iowa into northern Missouri closer to the upper
level low. However, MLCAPE values of 700 to 1200 J/kg should be
able to develop across the area this afternoon and evening.
Scattered storms will develop and move east across the area as
the front moves east later this morning and especially this
afternoon ending from west to east early this evening. Deep
layer shear and instability should be able to support the
potential for a few strong to severe storms with hail up to the
size of golf balls possible with the strongest storms. Low level
wind shear will be on the weaker side through much of the day
but will start to increase across the eastern Ozarks by early
this evening as a low level jet develops. If storm cold pools
can congeal and line segments develop, there could be a low
risk for a brief spin up tornado in the line across the far
easterly portions of the area late this afternoon and evening.
Coverage in storms could be more limited across the area through
much of the afternoon, however coverage could start to increase
late this afternoon/early this evening over the far eastern
portions of the area. This activity will push east out of the
area early this evening.

The cold front will push from west to east across the area this
afternoon. Temperatures will not cool behind the front, however
a drier air mass will move into the area from west to east.
Afternoon humidity values of 25 to 35 percent will be possible
late this afternoon into early this evening generally along and
west of I-49. An elevated to significant fire weather risk will
be possible for areas along and west of I-49 this
afternoon/early this evening as the dry air mass combines with
gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper level low will continue to move off to the northeast
into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, with the surface
front will stalling across Arkansas during the day. Only a
slightly cooler air mass will be over the area as highs warm
into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

The ensemble model members then indicate that an upper level
trough will move across the northern Plains late this week and
will move south through the region this weekend. Surface low
pressure will develop across the central Plains on Wednesday
with the stalled front across Arkansas lifting back north
across the area as a warm front Wednesday evening and night.
Elevated instability should be able to develop along and north
of the front allowing the potential for scattered storms. There
could be the potential for a few strong storms with hail being
the main risk. The upper level low will then push a cold front
southeast through the region on Thursday. Scattered storms will
once again be possible along and behind the frontal passage.
Enough instability may be in place for a few strong to severe
storms with hail the main risk.

A cooler air mass will being to move into the area Thursday
afternoon behind the front into this weekend. Highs in the lower
60s are expected on Friday with highs in the upper 50s on
Saturday. Highs in the lower 60s will occur again on Sunday.
Lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s are expected Sunday and
Monday mornings, with some locations across the eastern Ozarks
possibly cooling into the middle 30s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Surface low pressure will continue to move east across the
central Plains today. Gusty southerly winds will continue to
develop this morning and occurring into this afternoon then
gradually weaken some this evening but remain gusty into tonight
as the low moves off to the northeast.

A cold front is also moving east across Kansas. Some MVFR
ceilings will occur ahead of the front for a few hours, but a
much drier air mass will advect into the region behind the front
with clouds clearing from west to east this afternoon.

Scattered storms will also be possible along the front as it
moves east through the area this morning into early this
evening. There is questions on coverage of storms across
southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055-066>068-077>079-088>090-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise