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000
FXUS64 KSJT 122349
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

High pressure continues to build across the area today, continuing
the warming trend that is expected to continue for the next few
days. High temperatures today will reach into the 80s again, with
breezy southerly winds and dry conditions across much of the area.
Elevated to near critical Fire Weather conditions are expected
today, mainly across the southwestern portions of our area through
early this evening. Southerly winds will range from 15 to 20 mph
today with some gusts up to 35 mph, then tapper off this evening
to about 10 to 15 mph. Overnight lows are expected to only fall
into the mid to upper 50s tonight, with increasing clouds across
much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The main highlight continues to be the potential severe weather
threat on Monday. A strong low pressure system continues to be
depicted in the ECMWF and GFS model guidance for Monday evening.
Given the strength and track for this system, it appears that we may
see the potential for severe weather during this timeframe.
Precipitation chances continue to increase and are now at 50 to 60
percent for some locations given the consistent models runs
depicting this scenario. The best odds of receiving rain and seeing
severe weather are across the Big Country. The main hazards appear
to be large hail and damaging winds. The bulk of this system`s
activity still appears to be across north Texas and Oklahoma. We
will have to continue monitoring this potential activity for
additional details. Expect changes to this forecast as we get closer
to the event.

Otherwise, expect warming temperatures through the next several days
of the long term portion of the forecast. Highs in the 90s will be
possible for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds will
continue this evening, although may weaken a bit across the
southern terminals for a few hours through mid evening. A strong
low level jet (40-50 knots) will develop across the area after
03Z and persist through the overnight hours. South winds are
expected to increase and become gusty after 03Z and persist
through the overnight hours, with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Expect
south winds to remain gusty tomorrow, with gusts increasing to
25 to 30 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  88  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  58  88  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    57  87  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   55  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  59  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       57  83  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       57  83  61  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24