377
FXUS01 KWBC 110733
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Valid 12Z Sat May 11 2024 - 12Z Mon May 13 2024

...Wet weekend in store for the Central/Southern Plains and
adjacent Rockies...

...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible for parts of the
South and Southeast Sunday through Tuesday...

...Above average temperatures forecast for the West and
north-central U.S. this weekend...


Precipitation chances will continue today for portions of the
central/southern Plains and adjacent Rockies, and coverage is
expected to increase with widespread showers and thunderstorms
forecast to impact the Plains today. Locally heavy rainfall and
isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible east of a stalled
frontal boundary draped up against the Rockies. Potential storm
hazards will include hail, strong wind gusts, and isolated flash
flooding. In the higher elevations west of the frontal boundary,
wintry precipitation is expected, and some of the higher peaks in
Colorado and northern New Mexico could receive a few additional
inches of snow.

The surface front is expected to remain in place through tonight,
then the front will begin to lift north as a warm front across
Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday while low
pressure deepens over the Plains. Another round of widespread
showers and thunderstorms will develop on Sunday, and the threat
of heavy rainfall will increase as warm Gulf air moves into the
region. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4)
from central Texas east to the Mississippi River. Scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible, especially where
soils are still moist after recent heavy rains. The developing low
pressure system is forecast to push east across the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday,
and the heavy rainfall/flash flood threat will shift east across
the northern Gulf Coast states.

To the east, precipitation chances will return to the Mid-Atlantic
and Great Lakes regions today as an occluded frontal system pushes
towards the East Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will linger into
Sunday morning before the system moves offshore Sunday afternoon.
Another frontal system will drop south into the north-central U.S.
over the weekend, which may renew precipitation chances near the
western Great Lakes on Sunday. Other areas of the country should
remain mostly dry through Monday.

Upper-level ridging over the West Coast and north-central U.S.
will lead to well-above average temperatures in these regions
through the weekend. High temperatures this afternoon will range
from the 80s to lower 90s in California and the Pacific Northwest
and from the 70s to lower 80s in the northern Plains. The focus
for warmer temperatures will shift more into the Interior
West/Great Basin and Upper Midwest on Sunday. Below average
temperatures are forecast elsewhere across the eastern and central
U.S. through the weekend, but temperature will trend back towards
normal early in the work week.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$