000
FXUS66 KSTO 182109
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
209 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.Synopsis...
Warm and dry weather over Nothern California continues throughout
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies continue through late this morning with quiet
conditions expected to continue throughout the week. Winds in the
Valley have trended down with now only local winds 10 to 20 MPH
across the Sierra. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s and
low 80s with 70s and 60s across the foothills and mountains
respectively today.

Our ridging pattern will remain over the area, keeping conditions
mild throughout the remainder of the week. We will see added
cloud cover stream in from the west later today, but mainly in
the form of high clouds and clearing back out on Friday. A
shortwave trough slides over Southern California Friday that will
bring some outside chances for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm, but will be over the Sierra south of our forecast
area, so no impacts are expected. Current forecast runs support
this indicating our dry spell will continue into the weekend.
Valley Highs for Friday through the weekend will be in the upper
70s and low 80s with lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...

Ensembles continue our dry, warm stretch through Monday before a
pattern shifts as a upper level low moves into the Pacific NW and
secondary trough moving through Southern California. Ensembles
still show uncertainty on strength and location but ultimately
will help move our ongoing ridge eastward out of our forecast
area.

Once this pattern shifts, we can expect cooler temperatures,
increased cloudiness, and chances for showers and mountain
snowfall midweek next week. National Blend of Models (NBM)
introduces rain chances Wednesday morning over the Sierra and
Northern Sacramento Valley (15-30% chance) with higher chances on
Thursday (15-45% chance). Impacts are forecasted to be minimal
with the upper range of outcomes (90th Percentile) only depicting
minor travel impacts limited to the mountains.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with surface wind
mainly at or below 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$