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000
FXUS62 KTAE 260654
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Mid-level ridge builds over the region today and tonight while at
the surface, an expansive area of surface high pressure builds over
the eastern third of the country. With the ridge overhead, expect
warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Surface winds will
switch to become southeasterly this afternoon and overnight as
surface high pressure noses in from the east and northeast. Rain
chances are near zero this afternoon but with the easterly flow
developing, weak convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze
this afternoon could generate a brief shower, mostly along the I-75
corridor, but limited instability and moisture should prevent any
thunderstorms from occurring.

For tonight easterly flow continues and as we typically can see in
easterly flow regimes, we`ll likely see an increase in winds tonight
over area waters as the Atlantic seabreeze surges west overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Upper-level ridging will dominate the local area through this
weekend. This will lead to large scale subsidence with surface high
pressure remaining locked in place. Dry conditions will prevail with
highs generally in the mid 80s and overnight lows generally in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place through much of the period.
By the middle of next week, some flattening of the ridge is
possible, but no significant systems are expected to affect the
local area. Thus, dry weather is expected to continue. Afternoon
highs will generally be in the 80s and possibly near 90 by the
middle of next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period but brief periods
of MVFR/IFR conditions due to smoke and/or patchy fog is possible at
ECP, TLH, and VLD through sunrise. The highest confidence is at ECP.
Fog clears out after 14z with VFR conditions and light winds
expected through the day. Southerly flow will develop by the
afternoon hours as the southerly seabreeze makes inland progress.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Winds are expected to become east to southeast today and continue
into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient is expected to lead
to cautionary to advisory level conditions for the weekend. The
strongest winds are likely to be in the overnight and early morning
hours with easterly surges.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A pattern change is expected through today and into the upcoming
weekend. While warm and dry conditions will remain in place, surface
high pressure filling into the region will bring widespread east and
southeasterly flow. With high mixing heights and winds around 5 to
10 mph through the weekend dispersions will be on the higher end
through the weekend. While fire concerns remain low, many locations
have not seen significant wetting rains in the last 2 weeks and with
high dispersions, fire concerns in localized areas could become
elevated, especially into next week as little to no rainfall is
forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Little to no rain is forecast for the next several days. Minor
flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee and the
Aucilla Rivers. The Aucilla continues to fall and should exit flood
stage tonight. On the Suwannee, the minor flood wave will continue
moving downstream over the next several days with Luraville expected
to exit flood stage on Saturday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  65  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   82  67  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        87  65  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        87  64  83  62 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  64  84  63 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    87  63  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  68  77  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...DVD