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000
FXUS62 KTAE 151841
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
241 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Minor adjustments were made to account for current trends.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track for today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure conditions will continue through the rest of today
and tonight with mostly clear skies, dry weather, and mild winds
persisting through the forecast area. Potential for early morning
fog developments Tuesday morning High temperatures for inland
areas will be in the mid 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s
along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the mid 50s for inland areas and in the upper 50s and lower
60s near the shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Pre-frontal convection will already be underway over west and
northwestern areas by Thursday Morning, and will continue to
progress south and east through the evening hours. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) continues to put the area in a "slight"
risk for severe storms, with the primary hazards being damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes given the amount of shear and
dynamic forcing. Lackluster mid/upper level lapse rates and
sufficient, but not significant, CAPE should limit hail potential
for tomorrow. Given the timing of the front, the main source of
uncertainty will be respect to the amount of available
instability, especially further south and east where some heating
of the low levels could increase this - at the "cost" of
decoupling with the most favorable dynamics generally moving off
to the north and east. Overall, enough ingredients are in place
area wide warranting our "slight" risk.

Although not as elevated as severe potential, flash flooding with
locally heavy rainfall is also a threat, especially for more
urban areas or those more susceptible to flooding. Widespread
rainfall amounts around an a inch will be expected, with isolated
amounts up to 2-3 inches.

Increasingly breezy conditions will also be in store moving into
and throughout the day Thursday, which has prompted a wind
advisory area wide. Ahead of convection, southerly winds around
20-25mph will be expected with gusts near or slightly above 40 mph
at times. Behind convection, clearing out should allow some time
for convective gusts approaching the 40 mph threshold to occur
over interior areas that clear out a bit into the afternoon and
evening. All in all, decided to put a wind advisory in effect for
the entire CWA, covering most of the Thursday time frame. With
regards to temperatures: the strong southerly flow, almost semi
offset with the passing convection, will yield generally upper 70s
and low 80s, with an increasingly drier seasonable night Thursday
Night falling into the 50s.

A drier and only slightly cooler day will be in store Friday with
highs into mid/upper 70s to near 80. A dry front will cross the
region during the evening, which will essentially only shift our
wind direction from the southwest/west towards the northwest/north
going into the weekend as high pressure builds behind it. Friday
will still be a breezy day with a modest pressure gradient in
place with the high and departing low, though the gradient weakens
Friday Night as the aforementioned high moves towards GA. Friday
Night will be cooler than Thursday Night, with more values in the
lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s near the St. Johns River and
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure passes almost directly overhead on Saturday and
into Saturday Night, moving offshore by Sunday. A ridge of high
pressure will then linger across the area through the rest of this
period, with no major frontal systems appearing likely until at
least mid next week. Temperatures slowly moderate through the
weekend as the high moves offshore and a return flow develops over
the FL peninsula: Near average Friday and slightly to modestly
above average for the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions through most of the forecasted period with a
potential for reduced visibilities due to foggy conditions with
TLH, DHN and ECP most likely to be affected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

From CWF Synopsis...Favorable marine conditions are expected this
week with high pressure dominating. Southeast to south winds will
be the rule through much of the week. A clocking of winds to the
west and northwest appears possible by late week as a series of
weak frontal boundaries drift into the southeast United States.
Rain chances are low through this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry conditions will persist over the next several days, though
layer moisture will tend to increase through this time frame with
a southerly flow regime. Dispersions are good this afternoon over
inland areas, but are expected to be higher on Tuesday and likely
Wednesday with similar to higher mixing heights and transport
winds. RH values are approaching critical values over parts of GA
counties, but will rise through Tuesday. This type of setup will
also be favorable for fog potential through the next several
mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

Rivers continue to run high with flood warnings in place for
Pinetta, Quitman, above Valdosta at Skipper Bridge Rd (Withlacoochee
River), the Little River near Hahira, Aucilla at Lamont, St. Marks
Newport, Blountstown along the Apalachicola, and Thomasville and
US 27 for the Ochlockonee.

Significant rainfall is not anticipated over the next few days
with riverine flooding continuing. Flood warnings may be needed
on the Suwanee in the coming days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        56  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  75  65  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Scholl