543
FXUS62 KTBW 051204
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Ridging will continue to build across the region today and will
dominate the weather pattern through much of the upcoming week. For
today, adequate moisture lingers across the peninsula with PWs
generally in the 1.5 inch range. This moisture, combined with our
persistent easterly flow will lead to rain and thunderstorm chances
mainly across the interior portion of the state. As the surface high
centers over the area, precipitation chances continue to diminish to
begin the work week. By mid week, substantial ridging will lead to
drier air and near zero rain chances. The next chance for rain
doesn`t look to materialize until the end of the forecast period as
a trough sweeps across the eastern U.S. This feature is still 7 days
out, so we`ll continue to monitor it for any rainfall potential.

The main story for the upcoming week will be the warming
temperatures. As previously mentioned, plenty of moisture will be
present over the next couple of days which will act to keep
temperatures within a couple degrees of normal. But as moisture
wanes and upper level heights build through the week, temperatures
will climb. By Tuesday, everyone away from the immediate coast will
see afternoon highs reach into the lower 90s. For Wed-Fri, locations
across interior portions of the state will see temperatures reach
into the middle to upper 90s. Overnight lows will fall into the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Relief from the heat may arrive next weekend
with the aforementioned trough, but we don`t want to get our hopes
up just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period outside of
thunderstorms. All sites except LAL should see a seabreeze wind
shift by the late afternoon hours. Some isolated thunderstorms
will be possible today at most TAF sites in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure is expected across the region for the upcoming week
leading to minimal weather concerns. Easterly winds will turn
onshore each afternoon remaining below 15 knots with seas of 2 feet
and under. A few showers and storms are possible each afternoon and
evening with the sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

A few afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected across
interior portions of the state today and tomorrow. Then drier air is
expected as high pressure builds over the area. Critically low RH
values are expected, but winds will remain below red flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  72  89  74 /  40  20  20  10
FMY  90  69  91  72 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  90  70  91  70 /  50  40  30  10
SRQ  87  70  89  72 /  30  20  10  10
BKV  90  67  91  65 /  40  20  20  10
SPG  87  74  87  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close