Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
291
FXXX10 KWNP 291231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 29-May 01 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 29-May 01 2024
Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01
00-03UT 2.00 2.33 1.67
03-06UT 1.33 2.67 2.67
06-09UT 2.00 2.00 3.67
09-12UT 1.33 2.00 3.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.67 3.00
15-18UT 2.00 1.67 3.33
18-21UT 2.67 2.67 3.67
21-00UT 3.33 1.67 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024
Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 29 2024 0111 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024
Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 29 Apr-01 May, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3654.