Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

12z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with
increasing high clouds towards Saturday afternoon. Cloud decks
could lower to below 10kft during the evening and overnight period
with a few high based sprinkles not out of the question. Northwest
wind at 5-15 knots will slowly veer to the north-northeast
through the morning. South-southeast winds back up to 10-15 knots
can be expected by mid afternoon and into the overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Near-zonal flow will trend to southwest by day`s end as shortwave
trof comes ashore near northern California.  This trof is
expected to slowly dig as it moves to Desert Southwest by Monday,
and to then take on a positive tilt by Tuesday afternoon as it
arrives in the northwest part of our forecast area.

At the surface, northwest post-frontal winds will trend through
northeast and southeast today as surface ridge is displaced
eastward while next lee trof takes shape over eastern New Mexico.
This trof expected to evolve into a dryline as it moves eastward
across Panhandles on Sunday, with dry southwest winds increasing
following its passage.  On Monday, strengthening southwest flow
aloft will help drive dryline even farther east.

Surface wave expected to develop just north of Panhandles on
Monday, with southwest winds increasing as pressures fall.  By
Monday night, a few showers could develop across eastern sections
where modest instability may get a boost from vorticity maximum,
and across northwest and north sections as next polar cold front
makes its arrival.  Cold front pushes through forecast area by
noon Tuesday.  Moisture looks to be very limited but may see
light showers Tuesday and Tuesday night as dynamics improve with
aforementioned positively-tilted trof.  Trof makes a slow
progression across forecast area, clearing the southeast Texas
Panhandle Wednesday evening.  Associated cold front moves through
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Unsettled weather is
expected Wednesday through Thursday, but moisture appears to be
much too lacking to support substantial pops offered by blend.
Thus, have undercut blended pops Monday night through Thursday.
Dry Thursday night and Friday.  03


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening across the northwest part of the Combined Panhandles
as south winds resume and increase.  Elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are likely to return on Sunday and Monday
across much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to southwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts along with forecast
minimum relative humidity values of 5 to 15 percent.  A Fire
Weather Watch will be in effect for Sunday for the western one-
third of the Panhandles.  No elevated or critical fire weather
conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday.  Elevated fire
weather conditions may develop on Friday across western parts of
the Panhandles as dry southwest wind return.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Cimarron.



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