Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KEAX 211136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

Areas of rain showers along and ahead of a slow-moving, weak
frontal boundary will continue to shift eastward this morning,
departing the forecast area within the next few hours. A few
sprinkles may develop under the parent upper wave this afternoon;
otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected through at least
Wednesday morning. Temperatures today will likely top out in the
70s as cloud cover lingers over the region through at least early
afternoon, then well-above normal temperatures will return Tuesday
and continue through the rest of the work week as a persistent
upper ridge broadens over central Canada and allows an expanse of
+15 to +20 C 850 hPa temperatures to spread through the length of
the central and eastern Plains.

Rain chances continue to diminish for midweek in this dry, quiet
large scale pattern, although any High Plains convection that
develops could reach western or northern portions of the forecast
area as it decays, and have kept slight to lower-end chance PoPs
to account for the propagation of such system into the CWA.

Wetter weather looks probable for the coming holiday weekend,
when the EC and all GEFS members break down eastern portions
of  the upper ridge with troughing across the Great Lakes and
northwest flow edging into the eastern Plains. Currently it
appears the best chance for precipitation will come Friday night
through Saturday before the trough shifts off to the east, but
timing will change, and the progressive, convective nature of the
precipitation will keep the entire weekend from being a washout.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

Low stratus and light fog are beginning to show signs of thinning
at most terminals, and should mix out over the next 1-3 hours.
Stratus above the lowest layer is generally between 1500-2500 ft,
thus a jump to MVFR is expected once the LIFR conditions mix out.
The MVFR stratus may be a little more persistent, but should
gradually climb to VFR before stratus clears out completely during
the mid- to late afternoon. Winds will remain very light but
generally out of the west to northwest this morning, then should
begin to back to the southeast by the end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.