Area Forecast Discussion
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423
FXUS64 KEPZ 211136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest winds will be lighter today, with mostly sunny skies
across the Borderland. High temperatures will climb to just a
couple degrees below normal. A weak backdoor front will bring a
wind shift to the area Sunday morning, but temperatures will
remain in the upper-70s to around 80 across the lowlands. Warmer
temperatures are in store for Monday, and we may come close to 90
again by Tuesday. But, a stronger backdoor cold front will cool
things down again mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A closed upper low remains nearly stationary over SE Colorado, but
a sharp shortwave trough that brought us windy conditions
yesterday afternoon (and breezy overnight in several locales) is
moving rapidly into the Texas Panhandle. A secondary shortwave
will drop into the area later today. This will enhance the NW
winds slightly (gusts 25-30 mph) in the afternoon, mainly over
areas north and east of El Paso. With the NW winds, temperatures
will remain a little below normal today, with upper-70s common
across the lowlands.

High Pressure settling over the Southern Plains tonight will push
a weak backdoor front into the area by Sunday morning. Any cooling
that the front would have brought will be countered by increasing
heights as a mid-level ridge moves in overhead. Highs Sunday will
end up right around normal.

A weak southern stream disturbance will drift by the international
border Sunday afternoon and night. NAM and GFS produce some
convection over the northern Sierra Madres and try to sneak in
some light QPF north of the border. Despite the backdoor front,
surface dewpoints look to be stuck in the 20s and 30s, and the
risk of any measurable precip looks next to nil. The bigger risk
is dry lightning over the Sierra Madres which could become a smoke
source later in the week. `Tis the season.

GFS/ECMWF and GFS Ensembles are in rough agreement on a trough
moving across the northern Rockies and into the Central Plains
Mon-Wed, with ridging developing over the Great Basin and shifting
towards the Four Corners. The trough should help push a more
significant backdoor cold front into the area Tuesday Night or
Wednesday morning. West slope winds may be gusty with this one...
GFS has been somewhat consistent with 850mb winds in the 35-45
knot range. It`s also been inconsistently producing precip behind
the the front on Thursday as a weak shortwave disturbance crests
the top of a weak mid-level ridge. I`m not sold on the precip
threat at this point, and have limited PoPs as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally light NW winds will prevail today, with a few spots N
and E of ELP becoming a little breezier (gusts 20-25 knots) in the
afternoon as a secondary upper level disturbance grazes the area.
Otherwise, expect winds to become variable after sunset, with a
weak backdoor front bringing an easterly wind shift to most areas
Sunday morning. Skies will start out mostly clear, but increasing
high clouds can be expected this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lighter NW winds will prevail today, with temperatures just a
couple degrees below normal. It will remain dry, with Minimum RH
values dropping into the lower-10s across most of the lowlands. A
weak backdoor front will shift the winds around to the E and SE
by Sunday morning, boosting afternoon minimum RH values above 15%
across areas east of the Rio Grande. Winds will remain light early
next week as temperatures rise and RH level drop, but a stronger
backdoor front will arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,
bringing gusty winds to west- facing mountain slopes, and a slight
chance of precipitation heading into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78  57  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           75  52  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              77  53  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              76  48  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              56  38  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   77  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             72  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  77  50  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               75  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      76  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               78  43  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            78  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              73  47  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  78  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            76  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          76  54  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           77  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   80  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                78  53  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               75  54  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 64  37  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               63  39  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                61  35  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 71  37  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               77  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               77  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            73  33  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  72  44  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   77  37  80  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              73  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 75  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  76  52  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 76  52  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          78  53  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              75  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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