Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 250012
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
712 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR skies along with southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening and overnight hours across south central Texas. Low clouds
advancing northward from the coastal plains will make a run for area
terminals between 10-12Z. For now, we have low confidence in MVFR
cig development and will only mention FEW-SCT clouds at this time. By
mid-morning, clouds will begin to increase, especially out west along
the Rio Grande. We also expect some showers to develop at DRT and
will mention VCSH beginning 15Z at DRT. A cold front will move into
the region during the afternoon hours. An increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity is anticipated, mainly along the Rio Grande
plains. We will mention a PROB30 group for TSRA at DRT with the
initial frontal passage. Farther east, some of the models indicate
the SAT and SSF terminals will be impacted by convection. For now, we
have gone ahead and mentioned a PROB30 group for SAT between 00Z-03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
A cold front is expected after daybreak Wednesday with an unstable
NWly flow pattern aloft developing in its wake. Dry conditions remain
in place ahead of this system, so the temps may take a dive south in
the evening and then level off overnight after mid and high clouds
increase, followed by an increase in low clouds. Rain chances are
trending higher for the Rio Grande plains as the front arrives, in
part due to the sluggish front and also the maintenance of some
shortwave energy moving front the Pacific along the subtropical
stream. A few strong storms over these areas as the front could
spark some hail and marginal wind gusts. Farther east rain chances
will probably be better post-frontal with weaker activity and lighter
amounts. Models show an increasingly stable condition develop by late
Wednesday night with clearing spread south across the area at
daybreak Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Post frontal drying will lower humidities into the 20s in spots, but
with light winds and no elevated fire weather conditions expected.
Light south winds develop Thursday night, as a NWly flow pattern
aloft continues. Friday morning brings another front with only minor
returns in low level moisture over the western counties to bring a
slight chance of rain over the Rio Grande Plains. Slightly higher
post-frontal daytime winds are possible during the minimum RH period
versus Thursday afternoon, but cool temps in the 70s should lead to
most RH values holding in the 30s. Southerly winds should cover the
area by late Saturday with stable conditions expected to hold through
Sunday before ample moisture can return under a flat zonal pattern
aloft. More moisture over Mexico and an unstable SW flow aloft over W
TX brings a gradual west to east increase in rain chances Sunday
night into Monday. Deeper upstream troughing is forecast by model
consensus to form over CA, but deterministic models have been a bit
erratic on specifics. Thus will go for a daily suppression of rain
chances to mainly 20 or 30 percent chances and continued mild temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  83  54  80  55 /   0  30  30   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  83  53  79  53 /   0  30  30   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  83  55  79  54 /   0  30  30  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            59  77  47  78  52 /  -   40  30   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  77  57  81  61 /  -   60  30  -   20
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  81  49  78  52 /   0  30  30  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             59  81  56  80  56 /  -   60  40  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        58  83  54  79  53 /   0  30  30  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  84  55  77  53 /   0  10  30  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  81  57  79  57 /   0  30  40  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           61  82  58  78  58 /   0  30  40  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...YB


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