182
FXUS63 KGLD 110417
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1017 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend.
  Severe weather over the weekend is not expected at this time.

- Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

A 500 mb low pressure system is still stalled out over the
Great Basin. This afternoon and into the evening, this will send
out a weak shortwaves across the Great Plains, creating enough
forcing to start some light precipitation, but not enough for
anything organized or severe. Until about 0-3Z this evening,
light showers will be over eastern Colorado, mostly just
creating virga as there is a moderately pronounced dry layer
near and above the surface. Some light rain accumulation is not
entirely out of the question for these locations, but anything
more than a hundredth or two is unexpected. These light showers
could spill over into far western Kansas, but confidence of this
occurring is less than 20%.

Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a
different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the
east. This will provide enough forcing for some slightly more
organized precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The
threat for severe weather is low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks to be
limited to around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is about
15-20 kts or less. This could lead to some pop-up storms that
are quickly lived. Before about 0Z Sunday, any storm that
rapidly grows in an area of higher CAPE could burst out, so we
will need to keep an eye out for strong winds with decaying
storms tomorrow.

Sunday afternoon looks to be the "best" chance in the short-
term for some impactful precipitation and severe storms,
although no parameters look very impressive. A weak 850 mb lee
low is expected to form in the very early morning hours Sunday
and move across the CWA in the mid-day. Supplied with a 20-35
kts LLJ, we will have plenty of moisture to work with, which
does cause some concern for flooding potential. However, due to
little rainfall over the previous week and soundings show
upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a little fast for flooding),
there is only about 5-10% confidence flooding would occur. PWATS
are near 1 inch and there is an fairly elevated freezing level
which adds to the confidence, but does not make it certain. CAPE
looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD shear around
25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible (~5% chance).

Saturday looks to warm into the upper 60s and 70s, however
cloud cover could lower these temperatures 3-5 degrees if the
clouds become more widespread and move farther east early.
Sunday will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, due
to the low pressure system moving a cold front across the area.
Tonight will cool into the 40s; some locations in eastern
Colorado could see upper 30s if the clouds clear out early and
the winds become calm. Tomorrow night will be warmer as the LLJ
will be moving warm, moist air into the region. The western CWA
will remain in the mid 40s but the eastern CWA looks to stay in
the mid 50s. Sunday night will be slightly cooler behind the
cold front, likely down into the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

The extended forecast begins with an upper trough over southern
Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Low pressure will move across the
region, bringing a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms
to the region. Right now, the highest chances (30-50%) will be
for areas along and southeast of a line from McCook, Nebraska to
Goodland, Kansas. Expected temperatures will be in the low to
mid-70s for highs and the low to mid-40s for lows.

Tuesday through the end of the forecast, there will be a shift
in the pattern. Weak ridging followed by westerly flow will
bring warmer air into the Tri-State area. The morning is
expected to be dry, with at least a 10-30% chance of a few
showers and storms in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be
unseasonably warm, with many areas reaching the low 80s. Normal
highs are in the low 70s for this time of the year. Overnight
lows will range from the mid-40s in eastern Colorado to the low
50s in the eastern part of the CWA.

Mid-to-late week, a disturbance will move into the region. This
will bring temperatures back to around normal, with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the low to mid-40s.
There will be a chance of some precipitation during this
timeframe, although timing and location is uncertain at this
point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the day on Saturday.
Expect mostly clear skies overnight through Saturday morning,
with ~4-5 KFT AGL ceilings developing Saturday afternoon.. when
showers may approach the terminal from the south. Sub-VFR
conditions associated with showers (perhaps a storm) are
expected near the end of the TAF period (00-06Z Sunday). Light
and variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to
the S-SSW late Saturday morning.. increasing to ~12-17 knots
during the afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.. with
ceilings confined above ~8 KFT AGL. Light and variable winds
will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to the S-SSW late
Saturday morning.. modestly increasing to 10-15 knots during the
mid-late afternoon (~21Z).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Vincent