Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 272305
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR. Low level wind shear should affect all terminals toward
midnight once surface winds slacken. Otherwise, Memorial Day
should again feature some afternoon TS mainly NW-N of PVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...

This afternoon the upper level low has shifted east over Utah with
the ridge axis shifted east as well over Oklahoma. A shortwave
moving out of the Rockies is helping initialize showers along the
dryline this afternoon. The HRRR handled the virga showers well this
morning and has isolated showers and thunderstorms along the state
line this afternoon. We are already seeing a few showers in
Amarillo`s area, but expect a few further south in our area as well.
Thunderstorms should be high based and high wind gusts are the main
threat. Monday`s set up will be similar to today, with showers and
thunderstorms possible out ahead of the upper low. Both the NAM and
GFS show precip in the northeastern Panhandle, but the question will
be how far south they extend. Have PoPs at a slight chance for our
northern counties during the afternoon then shifting to the northern
Rolling Plains Monday evening.

The ridge will flatten as the upper low moves across the Northern
and Central Plains early this week. This should decrease
temperatures a few degrees to the upper 90s on Monday. Temperatures
start to increase again on Tuesday and will continue to warm through
the week. A heat advisory may be needed as highs will be 100-106
Wednesday and Thursday. Solutions are showing a weak front
entering the northern Panhandle Wednesday, but have it stalling
out before reaching the South Plains.

The next wave will move across the Rockies to our north this
weekend. The best chance of rain looks to be on Friday and Saturday
evenings if there is enough moisture and we can break the cap. Both
the ECMWF and GFS show a front moving through Sunday, which
hopefully will bring some temperature relief.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions will continue through the week. With south
winds 15-20 mph, elevated fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon and Monday afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
continues through this evening for the extreme southwest Panhandle
and western South Plains. Isolated high based thunderstorms may also
produce dry lightning and gusty winds this afternoon and Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93



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