Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250526
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
126 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast Wednesday
and push a cold front through the area Wednesday night. Several weak
disturbances will affect the area late Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 115 AM Wed...Low pressure has now moved into central NC,
with a cold front extending south so the Myrtle Beach area, and
a warm front extending to the NE up into the southern Delmarva
region. A surface trough is pivoting around the low and through
Eastern NC early this morning, with showers and thunderstorms
along along it. Most of the convection remains offshore, however
some of the storms may skirt the Outer Banks over the next
couplehours. Have added the thunder mention to the grids, and
adjusted Pops overnight based on high res models, which show a
decreasing trend towards morning. Temperatures are mild, and in
the low to mid 60s across the region. Expect lows to be close to
current readings, only in the upper 50s inland and the low 60s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM Wed...Main short wave will pivot through NC during
the day, and with areas still under cyclonic flow, isolated
showers in the morning will become scattered in the afternoon,
and have inc pops to 30-50% interior to 20% coast. Have added
the mention of thunderstorms as sufficient buoyancy will be
present during the afternoon and evening especially north of US
264. Otherwise, warm conditions expected despite the mostly
cloudy skies with highs generally 70-77, warmest inland and
coolest OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Weakening upper low just west of area
early Wed will move east across area during the day, then will
be followed a dampening short wave trough Thu night into early
Friday and then a stronger trough Saturday. This will keep
isolated to scattered shower threat in forecast that period,
then dry high pressure will build in Sat night into Monday.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...upper trough energy and PW
around 1 to 1.25 inch support chance POPs for scattered shower
threat mainly Wed and again Thu night into Friday with mainly
slight chance POPs for isolated activity rest of period. Some
model differences on surface low development with short wave Thu
night into Friday with GFS stronger with inland low while ECMWF
and NAM support weaker low near coast. Temps near or slightly
below normal during period with lows mainly 50s and highs low-
mid 70s inland and 65-70 coast.

Sat night through Monday...stronger upper trough passage with
associated cold front will bring in slightly cooler and drier
air mass during period, with some inland lows in 40s and highs
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...
As of 120 AM Wed...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected
for the TAF period. There may be some brief periods of IFR
across the coastal plain overnight, but it should be
predominately MVFR. VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites
currently, with some scattered clouds 1000 to 2000 ft present.
Expect the coverage of this deck to increase overnight, leading
to MVFR ceilings inland, including KPGV and KISO. Closer to the
coast, VFR ceilings should persist through the TAF period. There
could also be some patchy fog developing inland, so have
included in the forecast across the coastal plain. VFR
conditions are expected to return later this morning, and some
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the
day.

Long Term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Conditions will improve to mostly VFR
through period, but the threat of isolated to scattered showers
will continue each day with a possibility of brief sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 1030 pm Tue...Updated zone package to drop gales from
Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke and replace with SCA, dropped SCA from
Albemarle Sound and Alligator River, and cancelled High Surf
advisory for Carteret and Onslow counties.

Prev disc...As low moves away to the northeast tonight, winds
will slowly diminish though seas will take much longer to
subside. Several headlines expiring this evening as conditions
slowly improve, so will be sending out several updated zone
packages through the evening.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday....slow moving surface low will move
through Wed evening. Winds shift briefly to northerly behind
front early Thu but then some model differences with handling of
next surface low results in low confidence forecast of winds
rest of period. GFS indicates deepening surface low moving SW-NE
well inland of area Friday which results in moderate to strong
S-SW winds over waters. ECMWF and NAM indicate weaker surface
development along coast with stronger winds remaining offshore.
Models do agree on stronger front moving through late Saturday
followed by decent surge of northerly winds Sat night. Given
model differences, leaned to blend of Superblend and previous
forecast for Thu-Sat period.

Elevated seas will gradually subside below 6 ft Wed night into
Thu, then generally 3-4 ft rest of period but low confidence
forecast for Thu-Sat per above.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 130 AM Wed... Minor beach erosion, rough surf, dangerous
shore break, and high rip current risk are expected to persist
today across the local beaches.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL/SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM/TL
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...JBM/HSA/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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