Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 191231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Apr 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Isolated B-class flares were
observed originating from a new region near N04E82. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three
days (19-21 Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels this
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on day one (19 Apr). A return to moderate levels is expected on days two
and three (20-21 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to indicate a background solar wind
regime. Solar wind held steady at sub 300 km/s speeds, total field
strength was between 1-3 nT, and the Bz component remained mostly
southward, averaging around -2 nT throughout the period. Phi angle
was primarily in a negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin the period (19 Apr) at or
near background levels, before beginning to show gradual enhancements
with the arrival of the anticipated CIR. Late on day one and into day
two (20 Apr), conditions are expected to show further enhancements with
the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS as it moves into a geoeffective
position. Towards the end of day three (21 Apr), conditions should begin
to relax as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the start of day one (19 Apr)
under a nominal solar wind regime. By midday, an increase to quiet to
unsettled conditions is expected, with isolated active conditions
likely, due to the influence from an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Day two (20 Apr) should see mostly unsettled conditions
as CH HSS effects persist. By day three (21 Apr), conditions should be
at mostly quiet levels, as weak CH HSS influence continue to wane.


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