Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL IN NORTHERN BASINS AND ABOUT
AVERAGE ELSEWHERE...

This is the sixth edition of the series of regularly scheduled
Hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter to Spring transition
season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of
river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York
and Northeast Pennsylvania through March 28, 2024. Remember that
persistent heavy rainfall is the most important determining
factor toward the development and severity of flooding in our
area.

...SUMMARY...

The river and lake flood potential for the NWS Binghamton
hydrologic service area ranges from below normal throughout the
Finger Lakes region and Oswego basin drainage to near normal
in the Upper Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 14...

Recent Precipitation: Much above normal. Weekly departures were
showing between 150 to 300 percent of normal for most of the
region, but closer to average for a portion of the Finger Lakes
and the northwest Chemung basin.

Snow Cover: Below normal. There is no snow cover in CNY or NEPA.

Snow Water Equivalent: Below normal. None.

Streamflow + Lake levels: Weekly and monthly average streamflows
are above normal. Lake and reservoir levels are above normal.

Groundwater: Above normal storage.

River Ice: Normal. No ice is observed on area rivers.

Soil States: Much wetter than normal, especially eastern 2/3rds of
the area.

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC FORECAST OUTLOOK...

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS:
The official 6 to 14 day outlook indicates colder than normal
temperatures with near normal precipitation during week 1 of the
outlook with a trend toward warmer temperatures and above normal
precipitation during week 2. Medium range ensemble forecast models
indicate a low-medium (30%-50%) probability of total rainfall
exceeding 2 inches over the outlook period and a less than 10%
chance of exceeding 4 inches.


LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS:
The ensemble of river forecast system guidance suggests less than
a 10% chance for river flooding developing during the next 10
days. Historically, the hydroclimatology of the region indicates
an average probability of 30% to 60% for river flooding during
mid to late March. Currently, the operational hydrologic modeling
indicates only about a 10% to 20% probability of flooding through
the end of this month which is suggestive of a below normal risk.

...IN CONCLUSION...

With the significant lack of snow cover coupled with a relatively
dry 2-week forecast being offset by excessive moisture in the
soils along with elevated streamflows and groundwater levels, the
overall river flood potential is determined to be near normal in
the Upper Susquehanna and Delaware basins but below normal in the
Oswego drainage basin due to slightly drier conditions.

If conditions change over the next two weeks, Flood Watches and
Warnings will be issued as necessary. The next Outlook is
scheduled for March 29, 2024.

$$

JAB


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