Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1119 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018


Each winter and early spring, The National Weather Service office
in Newport/Morehead City, NC issues a series of flood potential
outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for river
flooding across the Newport/Morehead City forecast office`s
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). The outlook is based on the
current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which
contribute to river flooding. These factors include, but are not
limited to recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and
snow water equivalent, stream flows, and expected future weather

Historically for the Carolinas the river flood season begins in
early to mid January with the number of flood events increasing
through late winter with a peak in early to mid March...ending in
late April for the region. The forecast for normal river flooding
conditions indicates that the magnitude and number of events will
be typical.

Overall, below normal streamflow as you move into the piedmont
and into the coast, with a likelihood of becoming normal through
the rest of March...the number of river floods and the magnitude
of river flooding will be near normal for the state.

A table below summarizes precipitation and departure from normal
for the water year beginning October 1,2017.
(rainfall/departure from normal)

   Month              Greenville      New Bern      Cape Hatteras


  October             3.52/0.27      4.73/1.47      2.15/-3.23

  November            1.55/-1.57     0.42/-2.98     2.19/-2.76

  December            3.41/0.16      4.23/0.83      4.90/0.63
  January             3.41/1.55      5.06/1.04      8.60/3.36
  February          2.70/-0.65     1.35/-2.31     1.65/-2.37
  March to date       1.80/-0.19     1.66/-0.54     2.42/0.17

  Total precip       18.39/-0.43    17.45/3.37     21.91/-4.20

Streamflow values across the area are generally at below to
near normal values and upstream reservoir levels are at normal
levels. Soil moisture conditions across Eastern NC are below to
near normal.

The next five days, the area can expect near normal precipitation
... around one inch of rainfall. Then the eight to fourteen day
outlook calls for cooler temperatures and near normal precipitation.

Based on the above data, the river flood outlook through the
remainder of winter and into early spring is considered near

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
March 30.


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