Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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999
FNUS74 KAMA 181200
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Vanderburg...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
700 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 0800 CDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
North winds will pick up into the 18-28 knot range after sunrise.
Gusts could approach 35 to 40 knots during the mid morning hours. These
winds will gradually decrease through the day, becoming 10 to 15 knots
in the late afternoon. Min RH values will decrease into the 10-15
percent range this afternoon with very dry air in place behind the
front. This results in RFTI values of 2 to 3. ERC percentiles were
measured above the 90th percentile for almost all of the Panhandles
yesterday.

Light winds will gradually veer to the southeast overnight tonight with
decent RH recovery. However, winds will begin to increase out of the southeast
Thursday afternoon at 15 to 20 knots as RH values drop to around 20 percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 18 to 28 mph with gusts to around
                    40 mph decreasing to 13 to 16 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000-3000 ft AGL increasing to 6500-7500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 30 to 37 mph decreasing to 16 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (51400-88700 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent (102300 knot-ft) in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     52     59     65     67
RH..............39     28     19     14     12
20 ft wind......N 23   N 27   N 21   N 16   N 14
20 ft wind gust.37     40     32     24     20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0    4.0    5.5    7.0    7.5
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.30     37     30     23     18
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100051     128    143    138    120

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (34200-78600 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     61     53     48     44     40
RH..............12     15     21     27     35     44
20 ft wind......N 10   N 8    NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 6
20 ft wind gust.15     10     7      7      7      8
Mix hgt (kft)...7.0    5.0    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      NE     E      E
Transp wind spd.13     8      5      5      6      7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100079     34     0      0      0      0

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 16 mph increasing to
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL increasing to 5500-6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-44500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (50000-85100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............39     39     51     59     63     67
RH..............48     54     41     30     26     23
20 ft wind......E 7    E 9    SE 13  SE 14  SE 15  SE 17
20 ft wind gust.9      12     18     20     23     24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    1.0    2.5    4.0    5.0    6.0
Transp wind dir.SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
Transp wind spd.6      9      15     13     12     15
Haines index....4      3      3      3      4      4
VRate kt-ft/10000      8      33     45     52     78

$$
Forecaster...Ward
Requested by...Samantha Hamrick
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1806912.1/AMA



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