Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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191
FNUS73 KLMK 191243
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Grove North...USFS
National Weather Service Louisville, KY
843 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build slowly into the region from the northwest today
and tonight, bringing a return to drier conditions. Winds will be breezy
from the northwest today. Smoke dispersion should be good this
afternoon. Relative humidity values will drop into the 40-45
percent range. Clouds will begin to clear out during the afternoon
hours.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2800-4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 23 mph decreasing to around 13 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (42000-63600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................Max 53 in the early afternoon.
DSI.................4.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........60  48  45  28  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  48  51  53  54
RH..............60  54  50  46  43
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  13  13
Dispersion......3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............41  53  51  48  49
VRate kt-ft/100046  47  47  45  47

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......3400-4700 ft AGL decreasing to 500-2100 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (18900-55900 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor to fair (4400-18400 knot-ft) late in
                    the evening.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................50 decreasing to 7.
DSI.................3.

TIME (CDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........17  17  18  14  10  6   6   5   5   4   3   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  53  49  47  45  43  41  40  39  38  36  34
RH..............43  43  50  51  55  57  59  62  62  59  61  64
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10          5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 4.7 4.3 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.13  14  14  13  10  9   12  14  16  15  14  12
Dispersion......3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............50  9   6   6   5   4   5   6   7   7   6   5
VRate kt-ft/100050  56  52  38  19  4   5   11  18  16  11  8

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning. Areas of frost early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4700-48700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 increasing to 46.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   3
Weather cov.....    WID ARS
Weather type....    FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  33  35  39  44  49  54  57  60  61  62  62
RH..............66  69  69  59  51  42  35  33  29  28  28  28
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.7
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  9   9   10  10  12  12  12  12
Dispersion......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............5   11  11  12  20  25  32  39  44  47  48  46
VRate kt-ft/10005   5   6   9   13  19  26  35  43  47  49  47

$$
Forecaster...EER
Requested by...Terry Severson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807041.0/LMK
.EMAIL tlseverson@fs.fed.us



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