Text Products for FWS Issued by MQT

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
000
FNUS73 KMQT 161053
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Bramley RX...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
653 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A Hudson High is in place as a low pressure pushes towards the
Upper Great Lakes, resulting in gradually increasing easterly winds
today and tonight. Winds during the day today will mainly be 8-12
mph but will increase to 15 mph around sunset and up to 30 mph
overnight into Wednesday. RHs look to fall to near 25% this
afternoon with some recovery into the 30%s and 40%s late. Mixing
heights of around 4000ft and clear skies should help with any smoke
dispersion. Rain showers associated with the low pressure coming out
of the Plains arrive around midnight tonight, with around 1 inch of
rain expected from midnight tonight through Thursday evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........30 at ignition...Max 57.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Dewpoint............26 decreasing to 23 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Winds northeast at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 5 to 8
                    mph.
20-foot winds.......East winds up to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1600 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2500-4200 ft AGL late in the
                    morning.
Ventilation index...Poor (25) at ignition. Max...good (337.0).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......16 increasing to 18 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........7      5      8      12     20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............30     41     51     56     57
Dewpoint........28     26     25     23     23
RH..............75     55     35     28     27
33 ft wind......NE 5   E 6    E 6    E 6    E 8
20 ft wind......NE 4   E 5    E 5    E 5    E 6
Wind gust.......5      6      6      6      10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1600   3200   4200   3900
Haines index....5      4      4      5      5
VIndx kt-ft/100.3      10     6      8      28
Ceiling (kft)...18     18     17     18     19

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am, then rain showers likely early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 37.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Dewpoint............26 increasing to 29 late in the evening.
33-foot winds.......East winds 9 to 21 mph with gusts to around 39
                    mph increasing to 22 to 23 mph with gusts to
                    around 46 mph after 3 am.
20-foot winds.......East winds 7 to 17 mph with gusts to around 31
                    mph increasing to around 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 37 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......1300-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1700 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (49.0-494.0) increasing to
                    excellent (646.0) early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.04 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......14 increasing to 17 late in the evening, then
                    increasing to 20 late in the evening increasing
                    to 21 late in the evening decreasing to 17
                    decreasing to 13 after 3 am decreasing to 11.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........29     43     47     54     64     75
Weather cov.....                                   CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     51     46     44     44     42
Dewpoint........24     26     28     29     30     30
RH..............30     38     48     56     58     63
33 ft wind......E 12   E 12   E 16   E 21   E 21   E 23
20 ft wind......E 10   E 10   E 13   E 17   E 17   E 18
Wind gust.......12     12     23     31     31     37
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   400    300    300    400    1300
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4
VIndx kt-ft/100.31     9      7      10     13     49
Ceiling (kft)...16     14     20     21     17     13

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    early in the morning, then rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 43.
RH..................Min 63 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 36 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Breezy. East winds 23 to 29 mph with gusts to
                    around 47 mph.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. East winds 18 to 23 mph with gusts to
                    around 38 mph.
Mixing height.......1500-1700 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (606.0).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.32 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......7.9 decreasing to 2.8.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........84     92     87     86     88     87
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70     90     90     90     90     90
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............39     38     37     37     39     40
Dewpoint........31     32     33     34     35     36
RH..............70     79     86     88     86     87
33 ft wind......E 25   E 25   E 29   E 29   E 29   E 26
20 ft wind......E 20   E 20   E 23   E 23   E 23   E 21
Wind gust.......38     38     38     38     38     38
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   1500   1500   1600   1600   1700
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
VIndx kt-ft/100.68     61     66     69     66     64
Ceiling (kft)...7.9    2.8

$$
Forecaster...GS
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410640.2/MQT
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patricia.carrick@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
