Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 220749
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 12Z Tue May 22 2018 - 12Z Thu May 24 2018

...Moderate rain possible over parts of the Southeast/Eastern Gulf
Coast...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to a surface low
over the Great Lakes then southwestward to the Lower Mississippi
Valley will move off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Wednesday.  The western half of the boundary will move southward
to the Lower Mississippi Valley across the Southern Appalachians
and parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to the Great Lakes then southwestward to the
Lower Mississippi Valley that will move off the Northeast Coast by
Wednesday evening.  In addition, upper-level energy over the
Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms that will expand westward by Tuesday
afternoon into evening.  The showers and thunderstorms will merge
with the showers and thunderstorms along the aforementioned front
over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley that will
continue through Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Great Basin/Southern
California will move northeastward and slowly weaken to the
Northern High Plains by Wednesday evening.  Moisture coming off
the Western Gulf of Mexico will move northwestward into the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies and interact with
upper-level dynamics associated with the upper-level low producing
showers and thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains through
Wednesday evening.  Underneath the deep upper-level trough
associated with the upper-level low will trigger showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains into parts of
the Great Basin on Tuesday morning.  The showers and thunderstorms
will expand into parts of the Northern/Central Rockies by Tuesday
evening that will lift northward out of most of the Great
Basin/Central Rockies by Wednesday evening.  Overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts
of Northern California and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Additionally, a wave of low pressure over the Central High Plains
will lift northwestward into the Northern High Plains by Wednesday
evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
associated front over parts of the Central Plains that will move
northward into parts of the Northern Plains by
Wednesday evening.  In addition, showers and thunderstorms will
also develop along the front over parts of Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon, that will expand into
parts of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday into
Wednesday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$




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