Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of
Costa Rica at 09N84W to 07N98W where scatterometer winds
indicate that an ITCZ develops and continues west to 08N114W to
06N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm either side of a line from
06N77W to 08N86W to 05N103W, and within 240 nm either side of
a line from 04N104W to 11N118W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to
12N94W for the next several days with gentle to moderate
northwest winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, forecast across the open
waters west of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient is
tightening and expect moderate to fresh northwest flow within
about 60 nm of the west coast of the central Baja Peninsula
this evening on Wed and Thu evenings, then fresh to locally
strong northwest flow expected west of the Baja Peninsula
beginning late Thu night, and persisting through the weekend.

Gulf of California:  Light to gentle variable winds are forecast
through Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal flow
will continue this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal
winds expected tonight, with seas building to as high as 7 ft
downstream near 11N88W. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal
drainage flow expected to resume on Wed night and persist into
the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle nocturnal flow forecast this week.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail
generally N of 09N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast
S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front from 32N136W to 28N140W will continue east
and dissipate on Wed. A round of northwest swell, in the
form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will accompany the front and then
gradually subside through Wed. A ridge will then rebuild from
27N140W to 12N94W and shift slightly north over the next
several days. Fresh northeast trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are
observed across the tropical waters south of the ridge and north
of the the ITCZ, with little change forecast through the
remainder of this week.

Southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, currently
observed between the equator and 03.4S will gradually subside
through late Wed night.

$$
Nelson


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