031
FXUS61 KAKQ 071115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
715 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are
expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push
through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level
trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday,
with dry conditions expected Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

The latest WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well of the
east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area. Aloft,
a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high
plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH
Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place
over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the
area. Most of the earlier shower/tstm activity has waned, but
there are still a few showers over the ern shore, and also down
near the VA-NC border. Areas of fog have developed in the
piedmont from FVX to LKU where the sky cleared out after
midnight with a moist boundary layer. Have issued an SPS for
now, and will monitor to see if the lower VSBYs become more
widespread (uncertain as an area of mid level clouds is
approaching from the west and would tend to improve VSBYs).
Otherwise, mild and humid early this morning with lows from
around 60F in the piedmont to the mid/upper 60s twds the coast.

For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary
threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a
little steeper today compared to the past few days with the
expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning
into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as
upper level flow becomes NW as the upper ridge W of the
Appalachians amplifies. Shear will avg ~30kt. Expect the storm
coverage to be a bit less but still in the high chc range this
aftn (mainly 40-50%), with a bit lower coverage over the SW
zones. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from
the coast) this aftn. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s
across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast
may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for
some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish
in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight.
There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and
this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with
lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...

The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low
shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE
Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid
for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak
heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for
Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still
feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and
decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The
limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a
limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any
storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the
evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the
evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and
with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from
the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting
some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the
aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is
favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now.
Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the
upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air
moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper
50s W to low-mid 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...

Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to
redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated
shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be
limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set
off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs
on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The
weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models
show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and
passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The
airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/
20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It
looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable
temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s).

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

Showers taper off over the ern shore over the next few hrs,
though an isolated shower still could affect VA zones over the
next few hrs as well. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont
(both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly MVFR across the SE. Expect to
see flight restrictions improve to VFR by later morning/early
aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of
scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the
TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR
VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this
aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer
pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed
morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain
generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10
kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but
may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds
tonight.


Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed
through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving
cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there
will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri
evening. Mainly dry Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface
analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low
pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10
kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore.

A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag
southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting
back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well
offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A
series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy
westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring
the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the
afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced
winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low
late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a
stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but
confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low.
Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in
decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1
foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern
bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor
flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal
astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests
borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible
across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday
morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides
as we approach the new moon phase.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...