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000
FXUS61 KALY 171319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
919 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds today,
with showers developing from southwest to northeast this
afternoon into tonight. Cool and unsettled conditions will
continue through Friday, with occasional showers. Improving
conditions arrive for the upcoming weekend, although
temperatures will remain a bit below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. Just some
high level clouds moving in this morning, with mostly sunny
skies still in place. Temperatures have quickly warmed into the
40s/50s.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0619]...Skies will start out mostly sunny
today, with clouds then increasing and thickening from southwest
to northeast later this morning through this afternoon, well
ahead of an approaching warm front. Showers will gradually
expand northeast into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley,
Schoharie County and western Mohawk Valley by mid to late
afternoon, with some showers possibly advancing as far
north/east as the Capital Region closer to, or just after
sunset.

Despite the increasing cloud cover, temps should still reach the
lower/mid 60s in many valley areas, warmest within the Hudson
Valley from Albany northward, as well as portions of far
northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos where some downsloping from a
southeast breeze enhances warming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Isentropic lift and mid level frontogenesis increase tonight
ahead of approaching warm/occluded front. Upper level confluent
flow will maintain high pressure and subsidence just north and
east of the region, and may erode approaching rain bands across
the far upper Hudson Valley into southern VT. Elsewhere, periods
of light to moderate rain are expected tonight into much of
Thursday. As a shallow wedge of slightly drier air advances
south and west during Thursday, enhanced wet bulb cooling may
allow temps to drop through the day in some areas, making for a
rather raw day as temps either hold, or even fall through the
40s.

Rain should become more intermittent later Thursday, and may
taper off to spotty drizzle later Thursday night as best forcing
decreases with shearing upper level system. Lows Thursday night
in the mid 30s to around 40.

The combination of an approaching cold front from the west, and
weak low pressure south of Long Island will keep mostly cloudy
skies Friday, with showers increasing in coverage once again
from west to east late in the day, with showers continuing into
Friday night as the front crosses the region. Friday high temps
should reach into the 50s for most valley areas and 45-50 across
higher terrain areas. Lows Friday night in the mid 30s to
lower/mid 40s, warmest in valley areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will be moving across the Northeast on
Saturday.  Although moisture is fairly limited, enough forcing
thanks to the cyclonic flow in place could allow for a few light
rain showers, mainly for northern and western areas, on Saturday.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the most
cloud cover across northern areas (especially early in the day).
With the cold pool overhead, temps will be a little on the cool side
on Saturday, with 50s for most spots (40s across the high terrain).
Temps will be chilly on Saturday night with lows in the upper 20s to
upper 30s.

While it should be dry on Sunday, heights will only be slowly
rising.  Temps aloft will remain chilly, so cool daytime temps will
continue, with most spots still in the 50s.  With high pressure
building into the area, dry weather should continue with skies
clearing out, especially by the afternoon hours.

With high pressure in control, it will remain dry on Monday. Warming
temps aloft should allow for a warmer day, with highs back up into
the 60s for Monday afternoon with a mostly sunny sky.

Some clouds may return by Tuesday as the next system starts to
approach.  A few showers are possible by later in the day Tuesday
and into Tuesday night, especially western areas.  Temps will
continue to be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR with just some thin high
clouds in place over the region. However, mid and high clouds
will be increasing this morning for all sites from southwest to
northeast. KPOU will see clouds become bkn-ovc by the mid to
late morning hours, with the other sites taking until the
afternoon hours. It will remain VFR through much of the day for
all sites.

KPOU will see some light rain arriving by the late afternoon
hours, with light rain taking until 00z Thursday or later to
arrive at the other sites. Once rainfall arrives, MVFR
conditions for visibility and ceilings look to be in place for
the evening and into tonight. Precip will be light and
intermittent overnight, although low level moisture will be
increasing thanks to a persistent southerly flow. Some IFR
conditions (mainly for ceilings) will be possible by later in
the night as well, although not enough confidence to include
just yet. Light and variable winds will become southeast for all
sites around 5 to 8 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis