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000
FXUS61 KALY 231815
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny, breezy, and mild conditions continue into this evening,
when high pressure will depart ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Light rain showers develop overnight into Wednesday,
with gusty winds and cooler temperatures arriving behind the
cold front tomorrow night. Surface high pressure brings a return
to mild and dry weather to end the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure squeezed between an approaching
frontal low to the west and a cutoff low drifting northward to
the east over the Atlantic will be steadily nudged out of the
region this evening. Under its influence, temperatures have
risen well above normal, reaching highs mostly in the 60s across
the region, and some pockets near 70 along the Hudson and Mohawk
Valleys. Surface low pressure increasing over the Great Lakes
while surface high pressure remains centered to the south has
allowed for breezy south to southeast winds to develop for this
afternoon, with gusts of around 25 mph possible for much of the
region through this evening. In collaboration with state
environment and forestry agencies, a Special Weather Statement
for enhanced risk of fire spread remains in place across
southern Vermont and east-central New York thanks to these gusty
winds combined with low surface humidity.

Clear skies continue across much of the Northeast, however high
clouds will initially increase from the west before lower
clouds arrive overnight. A positively-tilted trough and
associated frontal system will bring overcast skies and
scattered rain showers beginning overnight. Precipitation is
expected to remain light, with rainfall accumulations of less
than 0.25 inches expected for most. Beneath overcast skies and
with ongoing precipitation, overnight temperatures remain mild
with lows only dipping into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will track near or just north of our area with a
strong cold front crossing the region on Wednesday. There is the
chance for some breaks of sun to occur for areas south and east
of the Capital District, with some weak instability possibly
resulting in a rumble of thunder with any convective showers
that develop. Precipitation should taper off from northwest to
southeast Wednesday afternoon. The arrival of cold air at the
surface and aloft behind the cold front could result in some wet
snowflakes mixing in across portions of the Adirondacks and
southern Greens Wednesday afternoon before precipitation ends
but generally no accumulation is expected. Upslope flow could
result in some QPF amounts up to 0.40 inches across the
Adirondacks. Temperatures reach the lower 40s to upper 50s on
Wednesday with falling temperatures in the afternoon hours
behind the cold front. Windy conditions will develop behind the
front as well with some gusts over 30 mph possible.

Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday night and will remain
anchored over the region through Thursday night. Clear/mostly
clear and dry weather is expected during this time with less
wind compared to Wednesday. It will be on the cold side both
Wednesday and Thursday night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
Highs will only reach the 50s on Thursday with some upper 40s
across the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out on Friday with high pressure over the
region providing dry conditions, near normal temperatures and
relatively light winds. The high will shift eastward off the New
England coast Fri night, with a slight southerly flow
developing. This will result in low temperatures not as cold as
the previous few nights.

An upper level ridge axis will move east across the area on
Saturday. Guidance has slightly slowed the arrival of some
showers associated with a warm front approaching from the
south/west as it encounters the ridging. So will now mention
only slight chance PoPs from the Hudson Valley east and low
chance west through Sat afternoon. The upper ridge is expected
to flatten somewhat as a possible disturbance aloft moves
through Sat night. Along with the warm front, this should yield
scattered showers with milder lows in the 40s.

The warm front should lift north of our region on Sunday, as
upper ridging becomes re-established. This will result in
temperatures warming to above normal levels with lower/mid 70s
for highs in most valleys. There will still be a slight/low
chance of some showers spilling over the ridge, but overall it
looks mainly dry Sun into Sun night. The peak of the anomalous
warmth is expected to occur on Mon, with the ridge axis overhead
and developing low level SW flow. A cold front approaching from
the west may bring showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms
Mon afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to persist through
this evening and into tonight. High clouds will increase from the
west ahead of an approaching frontal system, with bkn ci expected by
21Z Tue-03Z Wed. Cigs will continue to lower to 4-6 kft, however
MVFR cigs are also possible as rain showers begin by 08-12Z Wed.
Light rainfall rates should allow for minimal reductions to vsbys,
with VFR vsbys expected and MVFR possible in heavier rain shower
elements.

South to southeast winds at 10-15 kt gusting 15-25 kt will continue
at all terminals into this evening, with speeds diminishing to 8-12
kt and gusts ending by 00-04Z Wed. Low-level wind shear may briefly
exceed 30 kt out of the southwest at PSF during the overnight hours,
however lower altitude terminals are expected to remain below
criteria. Winds shift out of the southwest after 09-12Z Wed, before
a shift out of the west following the cold frontal passage by 15Z
Wed. Behind the front, another period of sustained winds of 10-15 kt
and gusts of 15-20 kt is possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will shift eastward today bringing partly to
mostly sunny, breezy and milder weather with temperatures rising
into the 60s with some upper 50s across the higher elevations. RH
values will lower to 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon hours
with southerly winds gusting to around 25 mph.

A period of rainfall is expected tonight through Wednesday and
may mix with or end as a brief period of snow across portions of
the Adirondacks and southern Greens before ending. Dry weather
then returns for Thursday and Friday with winds generally 5 to
15 mph both days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Picard
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun