Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270522
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Radar is currently showing light rain moving in across mainly the
southwestern Texas Panhandle at this time. Not sure how much of
this is actually reaching the ground given the dry lower levels.
Cannot rule out a few areas picking up some minor accumulations
this evening. Additionally, a few rumbles of thunder are possible
and some lightning has been detected across eastern NM and the
southwestern TX Panhandle, so have added low end thunder mentions
through this evening to the forecast.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A large scale trough remains over the southern plains which is
moving a few bands of light moisture across the panhandles today
through Wednesday. This band of moisture will be slowly drifting
from the SW to the NE through the rest of today and Wednesday.
This means the whole panhandles has a small chance of seeing some
form of precipitation just with terrible odds. This moisture is
currently causing some cloud cover but as more arrives it should
start causing the isolated showers late in the afternoon. With
solar heating there is a extremely slim chance that an isolated
thunderstorm could occur if we get enough instability. As cold air
is remaining across the panhandles the showers can change from
daytime rain to light snow during the overnight and early morning
hours. Any shower if it does form will not result in much
meaningful precipitation as the moisture amounts are low. The
trough present over the region is causing a slack pressure
gradient so the winds through Wednesday are expected to be
light. The cold air over the panhandles will keep temperatures
semi-stable and cold with highs in the 50s for both today and
Wednesday and overnight lows below to just above freezing.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

An upper-level ridge will build over the Panhandles Thursday as West
Coast troughing develops and an embedded shortwave trough moves
toward the Colorado Rockies, kicking off lee cyclogenesis. A
steepened surface pressure gradient develops across the Panhandles
which results in breezy southwesterly winds. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible in the western Texas Panhandle. Some breezy
winds continue through Thursday night before another embedded
shortwave trough arrives Friday as the West Coast trough continues
to dig. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible again Friday
for much of the western Texas Panhandle.

Saturday... the aforementioned trough amplifies and begins to move
east, and the ridge over the region noticeably amplifies. The
winds weaken compared to previous days but still remain around
10-20 mph. Sunday, the jet streak associated with the trough
begins to reach the Rockies which kicks off more robust
cyclogenesis on the lee of the Rockies. There is relatively good
agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the
location of the surface low Sunday afternoon (southeastern
Colorado or southwestern Kansas), but there is more variance in
the strength of the low... ranging from low-990mb to around
1000mb. This results in a steep surface pressure gradient again
with 20-30 mph sustained winds possible. Some details will need to
be worked out regarding wind gusts such as the presence and
location of a stacked jet, but there is indication that cloud
cover may inhibit mixing especially with southeastward extent. For
now, there is potential for wind gusts up to 45 mph in the west
but lesser or greater gusts are possible depending upon how the
aforementioned uncertainties play out.

Model spread increases dramatically Monday as the trough crosses the
Rockies and ejects. Some deterministic and ensemble members suggest
a negatively tilted shortwave trough moves across the Panhandles
Monday which leads to a robust low pressure with windy conditions.
However, the majority of the guidance doesn`t have this feature and
keeps Monday a more typical day for the area wind-wise. A cold front
begins to move in from the north later on Monday, but timing varies
significantly from as early as the late afternoon hours to as late
as the overnight hours.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Some showers continue to move across the combined Panhandles at
the start of this 06Z TAF period. This activity should stay east
of KDHT and KAMA now. There is a small chance for some showers in
KGUY but will most likely stay south of the terminal. Confidence
is low at this time, and left out of the TAF. KDHT may develop
some MVFR CIGs during the early part of the period with VFR
conditions returning by 18Z. CIGs should remain above 3k ft for
KAMA and KGUY but cannot be ruled out entirely before 18Z.
Southeast winds around 10 kts or less will most likely become
light and variable after 20Z.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday, Friday,
Sunday, and Monday, due to breezy winds and low RH. Winds generally
aren`t favored to weaken much each night which may not allow RH
values to recover significantly overnight. The potential exists for
windy conditions on Sunday with RFTIs as high at 5 in the northwest.
With ERC percentiles forecast to be in the 50-60% range in the
northwestern combined Panhandles by Sunday, low-end critical fire
weather conditions are possible.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  31  55  31 /  10  30  10   0
Beaver OK                  46  23  50  26 /   0  10  30   0
Boise City OK              49  24  51  28 /  10  20  10   0
Borger TX                  56  32  57  32 /   0  20  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              57  30  57  30 /  10  30  10   0
Canyon TX                  56  30  57  28 /  20  30  10   0
Clarendon TX               55  31  54  30 /   0  30  10   0
Dalhart TX                 50  26  53  25 /  10  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  47  23  52  27 /   0  20  30   0
Hereford TX                58  29  58  29 /  30  30  10   0
Lipscomb TX                51  28  52  28 /   0  30  40   0
Pampa TX                   53  31  53  31 /   0  30  20   0
Shamrock TX                55  31  52  29 /   0  30  30   0
Wellington TX              55  33  54  30 /   0  30  30   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36


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