516
FXUS64 KAMA 021047 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A cold front was pushing southward and was just about to move into
the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. This front will likely
push through the southern Texas Panhandle by mid morning.
Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front this
morning, mainly across the eastern Panhandles. A few thunderstorms
may be possible across the far southeast Texas Panhandle late
tonight as upslope flow combines with low level warm air
advection.

On Friday, winds return to the south and southeast.  This will
advect moist air back into the region behind the cold front. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible through the day given the low
level moisture and warm air advection.

Friday night, a cold front moves through and this could spark
additional showers and thunderstorms.  Some of these storms could be
severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.  An
upper level short wave trough moving across the Panhandles will also
aide in the lift department.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Saturday
in the post frontal environment.  Plus and additional short wave
trough is expected to move across.  Showers and thunderstorm chances
continue Saturday night into Sunday as yet another short wave trough
moves across.

The upper level flow then increases from the southwest Sunday night
into Monday as a strong upper level closed low moves from the
northern Rockies onto the northern high Plains. This low will have a
negatively tilted trough extending southward from it that will swing
across the Panhandles Monday morning.  Southwest winds will respond
to the upper level short wave and dry air will sweep across the
Panhandles on Monday leaving the region POP free, except for the far
southeast Texas Panhandle where some moist air may hang on long
enough for some thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon.

The forecast then remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday as a fast
zonal flow aloft spreads across the Panhandles.

High temperatures are expected to be around to just below average
for today through Sunday.  Temperatures will then rebound to above
normal again for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Northerly winds will pick up behind a cold front this morning into
the 20 to 25 knot range with higher gusts. Winds will gradually
decrease late this afternoon and they will turn more easterly.
MVFR cigs at AMA should lift by mid morning into the VFR range.
VFR conditions should continue at DHT and GUY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                77  50  73  52 /  20  10  30  30
Beaver OK                  77  45  77  49 /  10  10  30  60
Boise City OK              72  44  75  44 /   0  10  30  30
Borger TX                  80  52  77  54 /  10  10  40  40
Boys Ranch TX              78  50  77  51 /   0  10  30  30
Canyon TX                  77  51  74  52 /  10  10  30  30
Clarendon TX               77  52  71  54 /   0  20  30  30
Dalhart TX                 74  45  74  45 /   0  10  30  30
Guymon OK                  75  44  75  47 /   0  10  30  50
Hereford TX                79  52  78  52 /  10  10  30  20
Lipscomb TX                77  49  76  53 /  20  10  30  60
Pampa TX                   76  51  73  53 /   0  10  30  40
Shamrock TX                77  52  74  55 /  20  10  30  40
Wellington TX              79  54  75  56 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15