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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211922
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
222 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Generally, quiet weather is forecast the rest of today through
Monday night for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Breezy
southwest winds are forecast for tomorrow which will also aid in
warming temperatures back up into the 70s to 80s for highs.

For the rest of this afternoon into the evening hours, generally
nice weather is forecast for the Panhandles. Light winds around
10-15 mph or less and clearing skies are expected. Temperatures
will be a bit on the cool side for this time of year, but will be
warmer than they were yesterday. Winds will remain out of the
south to southwest overnight but will start to slowly increase due
to weak leeside low pressure tightening the surface pressure
gradient across the High Plains. The breezy winds should aid in
keeping temperatures above frost and/or freeze conditions.

Zonal flow aloft will likely remain in place over the Panhandles
on Monday. The aforementioned leeside low is forecast to
strengthen during the daytime hours tomorrow. Winds will become
breezy to gusty during the late morning to afternoon with gusts up
to 30 to potentially 40 mph out of the southwest. The stronger
winds will also usher in WAA at H850 with the low level temps
warming up into the low 20s Celsius by late Monday afternoon.
Surface temperatures are forecast to be around 15 to 20 degrees
warmer than they are today, with the highest temperatures for the
northern zones in the low to mid 80s. The breezy winds will likely
remain into Monday night which will keep low temperatures on the
warmer side and the current forecast lows are in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Model guidance varies on the timing, but a cold front may
begin to move in across the Oklahoma Panhandle near sunrise on
Tuesday morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

After a quiet start to the work week weather wise, things begin to
ramp up on Tuesday but moreso on Thursday. A cold front will move
through the area on Tuesday and slightly cooler temperatures are
forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The return of showers and
storms may begin as early as Wednesday night across the far
eastern Panhandles. The main day of concern will be Thursday for
the central and eastern zones when severe thunderstorms may
develop east of a dryline. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty but models are slowly coming into alignment for late
this week.

As mentioned above, a cold front will propel southward across the
High Plains on Tuesday. The quicker model guidance has the front
moving across the far northern zones near sunrise on Tuesday
morning. How far south this front is able to go by late Tuesday
afternoon varies from model to model and from run to run. The
21/12z suite of deterministic guidance has come a bit more into
line with each other, which pushes the front completely through
the Panhandles between 18z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. This seems
like the more realistic solution given these fronts typically are
faster than model guidance suggests and LREF/NBM mean wind fields
have the front south of the area by this time as well. If the
front does stall and the southeastern TX Panhandle remains in the
warm sector, cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm forming
which could become strong to severe. The potential for a
thunderstorm to form across the CWA is very low at this time
(less than 10 percent) but will need to continue monitoring trends
over the coming days. The effects from the cold front will
continue to be felt on Wednesday as the cooler airmass remains in
place throughout a majority of the day. This will inhibit heating
somewhat and highs will mainly be in the 70s for Wednesday. Winds
will initially start out of the east on Wednesday but will
eventually become southeasterly to southerly which will begin to
move in higher moisture to portions of the Panhandles. Weak
forcing may aid in developing a few showers and storms across
western Oklahoma and the far eastern Panhandles late Wednesday
night. Severe weather is not expected should any storms develop
across the Panhandles.

By sunrise on Thursday, the center of an H500 low pressure system
is forecast to be located near the southern tip of Nevada. The
trough may take a neutral to negative tilt as it approaches the
Southern High Plains on Thursday evening. At the surface,
southerly winds will continue to usher in higher moisture across
the Panhandles. With dryer air moving in from the west due to a
leeside low pressure system moving across southeastern Colorado, a
dryline is looking likely to set up somewhere across the
Panhandles on Thursday afternoon. Given the dryline placement will
heavily depend upon mesoscale features, it is difficult to predict
the placement of this feature more than two to three days out.
With that being said, the spread in placement from the 21/12z
LREF places the dryline as far east as the TX/OK state line and as
far west as a line from roughly Hereford up through Stratford to
eastern Cimarron county. With that being said, confidence is
rather high (greater than 70 percent) that the dryline will set up
somewhere across the Panhandles by late afternoon on Thursday. To
the east of the dryline, sufficient moisture will be in place for
thunderstorm development given lift from the dryline and
aforementioned synoptic features. Storms may become strong to
severe if they form in our area given ample instability and
shear. Will need to keep monitoring the forecast for Thursday as
there are still failure modes (low level cloud cover limiting
heating, capping issues, etc.) that may prevent storms from
becoming severe or forming at all. To the west of the dryline,
breezy to gusty west winds will likely lead to elevated or
critical fire weather conditions for areas that are still not
greening up.

Friday into early next weekend looks to feature breezy winds on
both of these days with some locations having elevated to critical
fire weather across the west. Temperatures both of these days
look to be above average with highs in the 80s.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are likely over the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain around 10 kts or less for most of this TAF cycle and should
remain out of the south. Winds will slowly increase overnight and
are forecast to increase after sunrise with gusts up to 30 kts
towards the end of this issuance. Mid level clouds will gradually
clear out over the next few hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                39  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  40  83  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              40  83  47  73 /   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  43  84  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              40  83  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  38  77  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               39  75  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 37  82  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  40  83  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                38  78  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                41  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   40  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                39  74  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              38  74  50  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05