Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 142347
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
With confidence markedly increasing over recent runs regarding
tomorrow`s severe weather threat, thinking is that the vast
majority of the severe potential will exist outside of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles. With that being said, we can`t rule out a
stray storm or two developing along the dryline across our
eastern most counties of the Panhandles tomorrow evening. Critical
fire weather conditions will exist for a larger portion of the
Panhandles as a result, and a Red Flag Warning will be in effect
for north-northwestern areas. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s
area wide, overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
Models have reinforced the notion of a northward system track,
along with a stronger push of dry air west of the dryline,
confining better theta-e south and east of the area. This should
keep the dryline situated closer to the TX-OK border, shunting
most convective potential out of the CWA. High cloud cover through
the day looks to be another limiting factor, backed by a majority
of forecast soundings which suggest capping could hold strong
through the afternoon, limiting the ability for storms to initiate
until stronger forcing arrives with a Pacific front and the main
upper level low later in the evening. If any convection does
develop in the far east, 6 PM to midnight would be the most likely
window of opportunity. Modest instability of 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE above the cap combined with strong deep-layer shear would
support large hail up to 2 inches in diameter being the main
threat, although damaging winds and an isolated tornado risk
wouldn`t be ruled out. In all, there will only be around a 15-30%
probability for storms to even develop across our eastern most
stack of counties tomorrow.
Critical fire weather remains the prominent threat tomorrow,
especially for the north-northwestern combined Panhandles.
Previous indications that the sfc low will develop further north
are holding steady, leaving a far less pronounced pressure
gradient over our northern zones. Despite this shift, gusty
southwest winds sustained at 25-35 mph gusting up to 45 mph should
still materialize through the afternoon and evening hours. Warm,
bone dry air will settle in behind the dryline, where dew pts and
relative humidity values will plummet, well into the single digits
based on drier solutions. Atmospheric conditions would be
conducive for critical fire weather across the southern Texas
Panhandle as well, but fuels are becoming widely insusceptible to
fire starts due to recent heavy rain.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
Breezy to near strong winds for Tuesday to start the long term
forecast period, along with elevated to critical fire weather
conditions returning. The potential stronger winds where
headlines may be needed will be across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
far northern Texas Panhandle. This area in particular will be
under the area of the most persistent mid level convergence from
the H850-700 jet streak that will parallel the central Rockies.
Coupled with steep height gradient with rapid height rises on the
backside of the departing low pressure system, northwest winds
could be sustained around 30-35 mph at times with gusts to near
50 in the aforementioned area of stronger winds. Min RH values
will be at or below 15 percent. Coupled with the winds, fire
weather conditions for the northern Panhandles in particular will
have to be closely monitored. Winds will taper off going into
Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will remain several
degrees above average.
Dry weather conditions will continue for the remainder of the
coming work week in the long term forecast period. NEar to above
average temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by below
average temperatures for Friday and Saturday. The temperature
swing is due to a cold front moving south across the Panhandles.
Perhaps enough daytime heating may cause a shower or storm for the
far SE TX Panhandle later this coming week, but chances remain
very low at this time.
Meccariello
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds will start to pick up out of the southwest in
the 12-15z time frame as we expect breezy to windy conditions
through the remainder of the TAF period. Only concern that we have
for the winds might be some blowing dust that could bring vis down
to MVFR at times. Confidence is not high enough to reduce those
visibilities just yet.
Weber
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
Very poor relative humidity recovery (maximum values between 20%
to 40%) is expected tonight in the western half of the combined
Panhandles, especially in the northwestern combined Panhandles,
leading to accelerated drying potential. Tomorrow, the
combination of very low relative humidity and breezy to windy
conditions west of the dryline is expected to create critical fire
weather conditions. However, there is lower confidence in
critical fire weather conditions in the southwestern Texas
Panhandle due to the 1 to 4 inches of rain that fell less than a
week prior, in addition to the ongoing green-up. All considered,
the fire weather watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
for the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwestern and north-
central Texas Panhandle. Have left the southwestern Texas
Panhandle out of the watch as fuels are currently expected to be
unreceptive.
Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible across the
northern combined Panhandles again on Tuesday, due to potential
for even stronger winds compared to Monday out of the west-
northwest, as well as low relative humidity values.
Vanden Bosch/Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 52 85 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 51 89 50 81 / 0 0 20 10
Boise City OK 47 81 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 54 90 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 50 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 51 85 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 55 84 52 82 / 0 10 10 0
Dalhart TX 46 82 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 48 87 46 80 / 0 0 10 0
Hereford TX 51 85 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 55 86 53 83 / 0 10 30 0
Pampa TX 55 85 51 82 / 0 0 10 0
Shamrock TX 54 83 52 84 / 0 20 30 0
Wellington TX 53 82 51 84 / 0 20 40 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001>004-
006>008.
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89